Raphael Honigstein's Bundesliga Betting: Leipzig to fall further behind Bayern as Bremen keep up great form


Friday

Borussia Dortmund v FC Ingolstadt

Ingolstadt’s stint in the Bundesliga looks to be coming to an end. With ten games to play, they’re seven points adrift of Hamburg who occupy the relegation playoff place. They fought well against Cologne but only a string of miraculous wins will save them now.

Dortmund drew 3-3 at Ingolstadt earlier this season and won’t be at full strength up front with Ousmane Dembélé suspended, whilst Marco Reus is injured and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is a doubt. At the back, Roman Bürki had to be sharp to deny third tier Lotte from scoring against them in their cup win on Tuesday. Even if Ingolstadt look doomed, they’re good enough to score here. Go for both Dortmund and Ingolstadt to score at 2.14.

 

Saturday

VfL Wolfsburg v SV Darmstadt 98

Andries Jonker has made a bright start to his time in charge of Wolfsburg with four points from two games. The players have been talking up how Jonker’s placed more of an emphasis on going forward. They’ve only scored twice so far, with both goals coming from Mario Gomez but perhaps Jonker’s ethos will bear fruit a little more against Darmstadt. Torsten Frings side won last week but have lost every away game this season. With Gomez looking sharp once again, it’s worth backing over 2.5 home goals at 3.10.

 

1. FC Köln v Hertha BSC

An uncharacteristic howler from Timo Horn on his comeback from injury cost Cologne a win at Ingolstadt last weekend. It means they’re now six points behind fifth placed Hertha who overcame Borussia Dortmund 2-1. However, Hertha’s big problems have been away from home, with Pal Dardai’s side losing their last five on the road in the Bundesliga. Dardai has intimated that they’re likely to sit deep and counter in their remaining away games. Cologne are five games without a win but expect them to push forward a little more than usual in their chase for a European place. Don’t expect loads of goals but enough to make over 2.5 worthwhile at 2.38.

 

FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg

For long periods, Freiburg didn’t see much of the ball against Hoffenheim but in the view of coach Christian Streich, they earned a deserved point against Champions League chasing Hoffenheim. Augsburg are in danger of slipping into the relegation playoff spot after a poor first half display at Schalke did for them last Sunday. The pressure is on Augsburg, particularly as a trip to Bayern Munich is next up for them. This game is likely to suit Freiburg’s counter attacking capabilities more though. Back an away win at 3.05.

 

SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig

Ralph Hasenhüttl admitted after Leipzig’s surprise home defeat to Wolfsburg that his side were no longer a blank slate. Seven points from their last six games certainly suggests they’ve been worked out and Werder Bremen will be tough opposition too. Werder have taken ten points from their last four games – a run which has been built on a big improvement at the back. Naby Keita being suspended for Leipzig is a boost for Bremen, who are good value for a shock win at 3.75.

 

TSG Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen

Leverkusen’s performance at Atlético Madrid was “a step in the right direction” according to goalkeeper Bernd Leno. When it came to possession, they were indeed on top but that’s unlikely to be the case for Tayfun Korkut’s side on Saturday. Hoffenheim are one of the best teams in the division at keeping the ball and Julian Nagelsmann’s side occupation of a Champions League spot is an indication that they’ve been quite good at using it too. Leverkusen have become less frenetic since Korkut took charge but Hoffenheim are unbeaten at home this season. Back them to have a little too much for Leverkusen with a home win at 2.07.

 

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg SV

They may be third from bottom but Hamburg head to Frankfurt in much better form than their hosts. Eintracht had been in the reckoning for a Champions League place but losing their last five league games might have just ended those hopes. Hamburg, barring their 8-0 collapse at Bayern, continue to improve under Markus Gisdol into a solid outfit with Bobby Wood looking particularly dangerous up front. They’re not quite as sturdy away from Hamburg though and with Eintracht needing to end their wretched run, backing over 2.5 goals looks wise at 2.38.

 

Sunday

1. FSV Mainz 05 v Schalke 04

After last weekend’s defeat to rock bottom Darmstadt, Mainz are within three points of the relegation playoff spot and that’s no coincidence given their recent displays. Schalke managed to come back from 2-0 down against Gladbach to edge through to the Europa League quarter finals on away goals, even if a few things went in their favour on the night. Home team captain Stefan Bell is out suspended after being sent off last week. Yet even if Schalke do have the wind in the sails at present, their dreadful away record this season makes it best to back a draw at 3.15.

 

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich have had the unusual luxury of having a full week to prepare for their trip to Gladbach. Their freshness is likely to give them the edge here too with Gladbach visibly tiring in their last three games. They’ve taken the lead in each, twice against Schalke and once against Hamburg, yet have failed to win any of the three. A sixth straight “English week” as it’s known in Germany (of playing midweek and then again on the weekend) has perhaps taken its toll on Dieter Hecking’s side. With Robert Lewandowski in red hot form, back him to score and Bayern to win at 1.92.