Champions League betting: History won’t repeat itself for Madrid


It isn’t an evening which features prominently in Real Madrid’s storied history, or indeed in Jose Mourinho’s.

The Portuguese probably skips over the page entitled ‘April 24th 2013’, the day that Robert Lewandowski’s four goals secured a stunning 4-1 win for Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid.

That’s the thing about history though, there is always more of it to come, and on a night when Mourinho was experiencing another regrettable chapter with Chelsea in Paris, the Real Madrid of 2014 were exacting their revenge with a 3-0 victory over Dortmund at the Bernabeu which makes this quarter-final second leg somewhat of a walk in the park for them.

They aren’t saying as much of course, with Gareth Bale making the usual vow that he and his teammates will “approach it like any other game”, and Mourinho’s successor Carlo Ancelotti including Cristiano Ronaldo in his squad despite the world’s formerly most expensive player missing the 4-0 weekend win at Real Sociedad through injury.

Bale is outshining the Portuguese at the moment though.

The Welshman comes into this game off the back of arguably the best week of his short Madrid career so far, something which the official Real website were only too happy to point out.

After four goals in seven days, including one in last week’s first leg, the former Tottenham man is again expected to start and star in a Madrid side which are as comfortable as their odds of 1.01 to qualify suggest.

Dortmund may trouble them and can certainly score on the night, but as Marco Reus has admitted they’ll need to play a lot better than both the first leg and the weekend victory over Wolfsburg, when strikes from Lewandowski and Reus himself overturned a 1-0 deficit to earn a 2-1 victory.

That scoreline won’t be enough here though, and in fact neither will a repeat of last season’s 4-1 given Dortmund’s lack of an away goal.

Their huge first leg advantage means that a bet on Madrid to win at 2.15 is a little risky, with the value instead perhaps with the 2.25 for over 3.5 goals.

If both players start the match, then the 3.25 on offer for Karim Benzema to outscore Reus is also worth considering, whilst, having done so in seven of their nine Champions League games this season, Real to score in both halves also tempts at 2.50.

 

Goalscorer betting

 

Bale is the current go-to man in this Real team, and it might be worth a small play on the 15.00 available on the Welshman to repeat what he did last time he was Germany (Schalke in the last round) and score twice. A safer bet would be the 2.90 for him to score at any time though.

Like Bale, Isco scored in the first leg and the young Spaniard is 3.55 to do so again, with Angel Di Maria 3.95 and in line for a start.

For the Black and Yellows, Lewandowski missed the first leg but he’s back and at 6.00 to score first.

 

Correct score prediction

Borussia Dortmund 1 Real Madrid 3 – 14.00

 

Best bets

Over 3.5 goals – 2.25

Gareth Bale to score at any time – 2.90