Bayern will welcome back Arjen Robben and Philipp Lahm, who both sat out the big win over Werder Bremen at the weekend. Toni Kroos and Mario Mandzukic, both second half substitutes for the 5-2 victory, are expected to start for the Bundesliga champions.
Real Madrid will be at full strength, with Gareth Bale well again after flu, Cristiano Ronaldo back from his hamstring problems and Karim Benzema and Pepe having shaken off knocks.
They may have beaten Bremen handsomely at the weekend, but there are serious question marks over the way Bayern are defending at the moment. They’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games and haven’t kept a clean sheet at home since mid-February.
Part of the reason is Guardiola’s decision to persevere with midfielder Javi Martinez in the heart of defence, so that Philipp Lahm can be freed up to play in midfield. But with Bayern leaking goals the way they are, and a need to be vigilant to the pace of Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo on the counter-attack, Guardiola may be better served by partnering Dante with Boateng and leaving Martinez out. In other words, Bayern must play conservatively, because a Madrid goal would make things very tough for them.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, will approach the game with far more flexibility and confidence. Los Blancos have only failed to score once in their last 33 games and will fancy their chances of grabbing a goal at some point.
The main considerations ahead for this game are Real Madrid’s current ability to score and Bayern’s current inability to keep clean sheets – and that should raise alarm bells for Bayern.
Much will depend on Real Madrid’s ability to get a goal on the counter-attack or from a set play. There is no chance of Real dominating the possession, so Real will need to score from one of these scenarios – and they will.
The only game Real Madrid failed to score in during the last 33 is their 2-0 defeat at Dortmund last month, but Madrid will have learned from that. That night they were cautious and cagey, but Carlo Ancelotti has made it clear to his players that they must go into the game with a positive mental attitude:
"At this stage in the competition the psychological aspect is more important than tactics,” the Italian said. "We have to be strong mentally in order to do our best to reach the final."
Expect Real Madrid to defend resolutely and score that all important away goal on the counter-attack or from a set play, which will take them to Lisbon.
Under 2.5 total goals at 2.40
Pepe to score at 17.00
Bayern Munich 1-1 Real Madrid at 7.50