Champions League Betting: Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Preview


Just a couple of weeks ago, most football fans would have been drooling with anticipation ahead of this Champions League second leg match. Two teams full of talent and attacking intent, vying for a spot in the final at Wembley; this was sure to be a classic. Then the first leg happened. And, more relevantly, Robert Lewandowski happened. The Pole's four goal salvo in last week's first leg means that Dortmund already have one foot in the final, as the odds suggest: Dortmund are as short as 1.18 to go through. 86% of Unibet customers betting on the team to qualify are backing the German side.

There is, however, a certain manager who thrives in situations like this. Could Jose Mourinho lead Real to a great escape?

Team news

Alvaro Arbeloa returns after a one-game ban for Real, meaning Sergio Ramos is likely to return to the centre of defence. Cristiano Ronaldo is expected to be fit to start, so either Luka Modric or Angel Di Maria will have to be content with a place on the bench. Di Maria's matchwinning performance in the Madrid derby on Saturday means he's the more likely to feature. Dortmund boss Jurgen Klopp made ten changes to his side for the weekend win over Fortuna Dusseldorf, so his players should be well rested ahead of their trip to the Spanish capital.

Form

Real's strong form overall has been punctuated by away losses in Europe: Galatasaray turned them over in the quarter-final before the humbling in Dortmund. Madrid can draw hope from their goalscoring prowess: they have scored three goals or more in four of their last seven games. Keeping a clean sheet won't be easy though: since losing to Schalke six weeks ago, Dortmund have scored 28 in nine matches.

Head-to-head

Madrid were stunned by Dortmund's high-tempo pressing game in the first leg, and will be wary of a similar approach on Tuesday night. In five competitive games against the German side, Real have managed just one win - a 2-1 victory in 2003.

Goalscorer betting

Despite his first-leg heroics, Lewandowski is still a very backable 2.65 to find the net at the Bernabeu. Team-mates Marco Reus (3.50) and Mario Gotze (4.30) also represent decent value. For Real, it should be no surprise to see Cristiano Ronaldo as short as 1.65 anytime and 3.15 to score first. Simply put, if Real stand any chance of going through, they will need the Portuguese forward to be firing.

Verdict

Real look a safe bet to win on the night at 1.62 - a result backed by 74% of Unibet customers. Both teams to score should also be a good bet at 1.44. Ultimately, though, Real's efforts are likely to be in vein following their first-leg surrender.

Score prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Borussia Dortmund (17.00)