Goals common but value remains with Unders…
We tend to assume that cup finals are more grounded and nervy affairs with so much on the line for both clubs. And when it comes to a Champions League final - the biggest of them all - then of course that intensity is magnified.
Four of the last five Champions League finals have produced fewer than 2.5 goals, which stands to further confirm the idea, but if we increase our sample size it reveals a slightly different trend.
The last 20 Champions League finals have produced a total of 51 goals, at an average of 2.55 goals per game. Thus suggesting that the market should be fairly evenly balanced between the Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 goals selections. Not so.
At odds of 1.72 there is no value in backing Over 2.5 goals, based on previous trends. Instead, we should be banking on another closely fought battle, with Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05.
If it goes to extra time, then it’s going to penalties…
Only once since 1970, when an Ove Kindvall goal won the European Cup for Feyenoord, has a Champions League/European Cup final been won in extra time.
In fact, Ronald Koeman’s extra-time winner against Sampdoria in 1992 is the only occasion that an extra-time goal has even been scored in the last 40 years.
Chelsea-Bayern Munich (2012), Manchester United-Chelsea (2008), Liverpool-Milan (2005, pictured), Milan-Juventus (2003) and Bayern Munich-Valencia (2001) have all been level after 90 minutes in finals this century, but not one of them has seen an extra-time goal.
So if you fancy that the game will be level at the end of 90 minutes, rather than take the 3.75 about the draw it would be prudent to back the 7.50 that the match finishes with a penalty shootout.
Next goal is the winner…
Over the last 20 years of Champions League finals, 16 of the teams that have scored the last goal in the game have been crowned European champions. One of those matches in the 20-year period ended 0-0, so 16 out of 19 games have seen the eventual winners score the last goal of the 90 minutes, i.e. 84.2%.
Rather than looking at the Champions League winner it may be possible to extract some better value from the Team to Score Last market where Bayern are a 1.50 chance and Dortmund are 2.50. And if the game goes to extra time or penalties then we know that we should be backing the team that scored the last goal of the 90 minutes to go on and lift the trophy.
Head-to-head record favours outsiders…
Dortmund are the only German side not to have lost to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this season, and are in fact unbeaten in their last six league clashes having won the four previous. Jurgen Klopp’s men did lose out to this season’s Bundesliga champions in the German Cup and German Super Cup, both at the Allianz Arena, this campaign, but it was Dortmund who triumphed in the most recent meeting on neutral ground in last season’s German Cup final.
Dortmund can be backed at odds of 4.80 in the match winner market, 3.45 in the Draw No Bet market and 3.05 to lift the trophy.