Copa del Rey Betting: Atletico Madrid v Sevilla


Diego Simeone has transformed the capital's second club. When he was hired in the summer of 2011, few would have predicted that Atletico Madrid would add another Europa League title, be second in the league and in the semi-finals of the cup, just 18 months later.

Meanwhile, at Sevilla Unai Emery has the smell of silverware under his nose, following an ill-fated spell at Spartak Moscow in Russia. 

Striker Álvaro Negredo is pleased with the new approach: "Unai wants us to squeeze opponents, pressure, force them to lose possession." 

It's not just in style he has noticed a shift either: "Yes, something has changed. The mindset, the determination, the fans. It's a combination of things that has made everything better."

Team News

Having been ruled out for a while, Radamel Falcao faces a surprise late fitness test in what would be a massive boost for Atletico. Should the Colombian fail to make it, then it's a straight choice between Diego Costa and Adrián López. 

João Miranda, Mario Suárez and Koke should all return in place of Cata Díaz, Emre and Raúl García.

For Sevilla, Beto should make his debut following his loan move from Braga. No other changes are expected. Geoffrey Kondogbia scored earlier in the week and will likely partner Gary Medel in midfield.

Form

Atletico’s 3-0 defeat at San Mamés was unexpected and unlikely to be repeated, if 'El Cholo' has anything to do with it. It was only the sixth time they have lost all season, in 34 games. The double chance of Atléti to win or draw is 1.14.

Sevilla are undefeated and have only conceded one goal in their four games under Unai Emery, with the 3-0 destruction of Andalusian rivals Granada the icing on the cake. They can be backed at 5.50 to keep another clean sheet.

Recent head-to-head

I witnessed a drab 0-0 in this fixture in October 2011, but times have certainly changed for both clubs on and off the pitch since then. 

Last year Atlético ran out 4-0 winners, as an early Federico Fazio red card left Sevilla with an uphill battle. The centre-back is 2.70 for a booking.

Goalscorer Betting

Ex-Atléti winger and current Sevilla creator José Antonio Reyes has been rather charming about his former teammates. 

His reference to Diego Costa as a "Guerrilla" was meant in the nicest possible way, indicative of the striker’s willingness to never give up on a lost ball and give everything he has on the pitch. 

Costa is 4.75 for first goal, whilst you can get 6.50 for Reyes to find the net against his old employers.

Tottenham Hotspur transfer target Negredo is currently top scorer in the competition with five goals. He's 3.30 to score another and 10.00 to score two goals or more.

Verdict

Atlético are in the midst of a fantastic season, with players exceeding expectations. 

It's early days for the new Sevilla, though the signs are encouraging and they have a fantastic manager, with something to prove. 

An evenly matched game should see Los Rojiblancos use their home advantage and administer the first defeat of the Emery era. Atléti to win is 1.60.

Bonus Bet

Prior to the drubbing in Bilbao, Atlético had conceded just two goals in seven matches. 

Along with Sevilla's new found resilience in defence, under 3.5 goals is 1.30, with a braver under 2.5 available at 1.86.

Score Prediction

Atlético Madrid 2-1 Sevilla (7.75)


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