La Liga Betting: Atletico to record historic win in Madrid derby



It's 110 years since a group of Basque students founded Atlético Madrid in the capital and whilst they have always lived in the shadow of their nearest rivals, they have an illustrious history of their own. With Champions League football for next season practically secured and two Europa League trophies in three years, the club are also making waves on the pitch. Just three points behind Los Blancos with six matches remaining, this season will go down as a fantastic achievement for Diego Simeone's side, no matter how it ends. It's 14 years since they managed a victory over Real Madrid, however.

José Mourinho accepted that Borussia Dortmund were the better team after his side's 4-1 hammering in Germany. The Portuguese manager hasn't completely ruled out a dramatic comeback, though. Goals will definitely flow next week at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Team news

Turkish winger Arda Turan remains a doubt for the hosts, but striker Diego Costa is available after his yellow card last weekend was rescinded. Raúl Garcia has impressed in recent weeks and may be given the opportunity to start.

Cristiano Ronaldo has a thigh strain so won't be involved, while youngsters Casemiro, Nacho and Alvaro Morata are all expected to start. Club captain Iker Casillas could make his first appearance since January, with Raúl Albiol and Ricardo Carvalho expected to line up in front of him.

Form

Wins over Granada and Sevilla have put Los Colchoneros in much better shape, and they have dropped only four points at the Vicente Calderón all season long. Since the first meeting with Manchester United, Real Madrid have won eight out of nine matches in La Liga.

Recent head-to-head

It's over a year since Real Madrid's last visit, when a Ronaldo hat-trick helped them on the way to a 4-1 victory. Atléti last won a Madrid derby in 1999.

Goalscorer betting

With CR7 not playing, Real Madrid find themselves in a rare situation: the biggest goal threat belongs to the opposition. The striker the world wants to buy, Radamel Falcao, is at 4.20 for the first goal. Raúl Garcia now has five goals in ten starts and is 3.80 to score at any time. For the away side, Kaká is nicely priced at 12.50 to score first, while Karim Benzema is 3.05 to reach double figures for the season with a goal.

Verdict

Has there ever been a better opportunity for Atléti to overcome their curse? There's certainly a now-or-never feel to this match: if the home side can't overcome a second-string Real that has its mind on other things, the mental effect could be huge. Atlético are available at 2.45 to pull off a historic victory.

Bonus bet

Tempers will flare as Simeone will look to unsettle a club that's suffering from shock. Mourinho won't just roll over and concede their impressive record. There have been three penalties in the last three matches between the teams; each team can be backed to score from the spot at 9.00.

Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid (10.50)