Serie A Betting: Weekend Tips



Saturday

Atalanta 2.25, the draw 3.2, Parma 3.2

The Parma manager Roberto Donadoni said he expects a “battle” this weekend and that is probably the appropriate word. His team sit 17th Serie A’s Fair Play table, while Atalanta are 18th. The wisest bet in this game might be on a red card being shown at some stage, but failing that back Atalanta’s Germán Denis to get his name on the scoresheet at 2.2. After a slow start to the season the Argentinian has found form with three goals in his last four games.

Roma 1.95, the draw 3.6, Fiorentina 3.6

David Pizarro will not take to the field against his former club, the Fiorentina midfielder having returned to Chile at short notice this week in order to attend his sister’s funeral. That is as it should be, but from a footballing standpoint there is no question that Fiorentina will be diminished by his absence. Pulling the strings as ever at the heart of midfield, Pizarro has been not only one of the top performers on his team this season, but in the entire league. With him in the line-up, the odds on the away win might have begun to look tempting. As it is, I would fall back on the over 3.5 goals bet at 1.95 – since Roma are not the only team in this match-up who have been scoring freely this season.

Sunday

Cagliari 1.9, the draw 3.15, Chievo 4.5

Alberto Paloschi served Italy with another reminder of his potential on Sunday, scoring a hat-trick for Chievo in their 4-2 win at Genoa. The player has missed much of the season to date with injuries, but it would be dangerous to assume that he can be consistently prolific now that he has returned. Thus far in his career Paloschi has dazzled only fitfully and last season he managed just six goals in 32 appearances. Still, with both teams having begun to score a bit more freely in recent weeks, try over 2.5 goals in the game at 2.15.

Palermo 5.5, the draw 3.75, Juventus 1.62

Antonio Conte returns at last to the Juventus bench, having completed his touchline ban. His team may have lost their unbeaten status in the meantime, but otherwise he can hardly be too disappointed with their performances in his absence. Three months into the season Juve are top of Serie A and through to the knockout stages of the Champions League. The expectation is that Juventus will welcome their manager back with a win against a Palermo team struggling in 17th. But consider a punt on Fabrizio Miccoli – a player with a long track record of raising his game against the best teams – to get his name on the scoresheet for the hosts at 3.1.

Pescara 2.85, the draw 3.2, Genoa 2.45

Ciro Immobile scored 28 goals for Pescara last year, helping them to escape Serie B. Sadly he has not had quite the same impact since moving to Genoa in the summer. Were it not for a points deduction to Siena, his team would sit second-from bottom. As it is they are 18th, with Siena and Pescara sharing last place. It is hard to have faith in either of these teams at present. With Genoa having scored just five times in seven games on their travels and Pescara managing just six in eight at home, my bet would be against both sides scoring at even money.

Siena 2.3, the draw 3.2, Catania 3.1

As good as they have been at home this season, Catania are yet to win a game outside of the Stadio Massimino. In fact, they are without a win in 14 away matches dating back to last season. That is a good enough reason to take the home win here at 2.3.

Torino 3.4, the draw 3.2, Milan 2.15

Perhaps Silvio Berlusconi’s magic is finally wearing off, the Milan owner’s latest training ground visit failing to inspire his team to victory over Zenit St Petersburg. But with progress to the Champions League knockout stage already secured, the greater priority was likely always Sunday’s game in Turin. After a string of positive results against Napoli, Juventus and Catania, Milan must keep up their momentum if they are to fight back into contention for a top three finish. The obvious bet here is the same as ever. Back Stephan El Shaarawy, with 12 goals in his last 12 league games, to score at 2.45.

Inter 2.4, the draw 3.2, Napoli 3.0

One prediction for this fixture can be made with absolute confidence. Whichever team wins will be anointed as the “official anti-Juve” by the Italian press on Monday morning – hailed as the only ones capable of wresting the Scudetto away from the Bianconeri. This will remain the case until the aforementioned team inevitably slips up in a far less high-profile game a week or two later.

Inter’s public contract stand-off with Wesley Sneijder  has dominated the headlines, but more troubling for the Nerazzurri will be the fact that they have won just once in six games. Although Napoli are not traditionally good travellers, they have won four of seven away from home this season. Rather than dabble in the win market, I would back Marek Hamsik to score at a generous 4.5. He has seven in the league already this season, and three in his last four games.

Monday

Sampdoria 2.4, the draw 3.1, Udinese 3.05

Ciro Ferrara appears to have Samp back on track, his team recording a highly creditable draw away to Fiorentina last Sunday to make it seven points from the last three games. At 2.45, take them to improve that to 10 points from four games against an Udinese team that may still be feeling the effects of their Thursday night loss to Liverpool.

Bologna 2.85, the draw 3.05, Lazio 2.55

The only Italian side to record a victory in the Europa League on Thursday night, Lazio have rediscovered their form since a humiliating 4-0 defeat to Catania at the beginning of November. But the Biancocelesti have taken just 10 points from their seven away games, and have failed to score in any of the last three. Bologna are not the better team by any stretch of the imagination, but at 2.85 to win, they are the better priced.