European Tour Golf Betting: Stenson Holds Edge Over McIlroy In Dubai


It's the third and final stop of the desert swing and the Emirates GC in Dubai is arguably the easiest of the three setups. Ryder Cupper Stephen Gallacher - 26.00 - will be looking to make it three on the spin here on a course he loves while Rory McIlroy - 4.33 - returns to headline the market after yet another runner up finish in Abu Dhabi just two weeks ago.

The field is strong and the top end of the betting looks like it will be tough to crack. Battling for rightful favouritism with Rory McIlroy is Henrik Stenson - 13.00; the Swede used to live in the vicinity for many a year and I'd go as far as saying Emirates GC was like his back garden. With the knowledge of the course nuances, this could potentially give him the edge over the world number one. 

 

The course - Emirates GC

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This week sees a bit of a different test than the previous two weeks. Wind and rough generally are not as much of a factor at Emirates GC. The main defence of the course instead comes in the form of undulations on average to generous fairways (mostly dog-legged), fast and fiery conditions, and subtly sculpted green contouring with some recently introduced run offs, placing a premium on approach shot accuracy and playing smart. The track plays 7,316 yards to a par of 72 and water features throughout. Scoring should be fairly low if conditions remain benign. Very eagle-able par fives and a couple of short par 4s await.

 

Three from the pack

I'm extremely surprised by the price of Marc Warren - 67.00 or 14.00 - this week. Warren missed out by just one shot to Branden Grace in Qatar and his all round game looked about to peak. I'm expecting a big season from the Scot who now sits just six places outside the world's top 50. A bunch of missed cuts here may be the reason for such a big price but Warren does have a couple of top 20s sandwiched in between them. Most importantly though, Mark is a much improved player this time around and will be looking to emulate fellow Scot Stephen Gallacher's success here.

Another player to seemingly go unnoticed is Gregory Bourdy - 101.0 or 19.00 - after his exploits in Qatar. The Frenchman rallied on his front nine on final day Saturday to propel himself into contention and eventually posted a 65 to record a top five finish. This was on the back of a warm up in Abu Dhabi in which Bourdy posted two rounds of 66. Again, just modest but consistent form here may be the reason for his price but there's plenty of juice in these odds in my opinion for the multiple winner in the midst of a French revolution.

I tipped Scott Jamieson - 201.0 or 26.00 - here last year on the back of becoming a new dad but the "nappyfactor" theme didn't work out. Jamieson was rusty (maybe tired) and finished T48. His previous two appearances though yielded finishing positions of 26 and 5 and what stands out about them is the fact he opened each time with a round of 65. Scott struggles to put four rounds together so the subsidiary and first round leader market in particular may be worth looking at. Jamieson started strongly in Qatar last week before a few errant shots and water trouble dropped him back into the pack but signs are there that a big performances may be just around the corner.

Bet now on the Omega Dubai Desert Classic