DP World Tour Championship Betting market and Overview
Four players are still in with a shout in the European Tour's Race To Dubai as we head back to the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the season finale. Rory McIlroy - 4.00, Henrik Stenson - 7.00, the in-form Alex Noren - 15.00, and Danny Willett - 31.00 - can all claim top spot with over $1.3 million USD up for grabs to the winner of the DP World Tour Championship. The top 60 players in the Race To Dubai will battle it out and there's also the added incentive of a $5million bonus pool to be shared amongst the Race to Dubai top 10 come the end of play on Sunday.
The course - Jumeirah Golf Estates (Earth Course)
The Earth course is notoriously one for the bombers and I'm going to eliminate those not above average in the driving distance department from my profiling as they are at a significant disadvantage right out of the blocks. This is one of the longest courses on the tour at circa 7,675 yards to a par of 72. Conditions are always fast and firm which does somewhat help the shorter guys in the Dubai desert, and the firm greens usually push 13' on the stimp here. Surfaces are large, undulating, hard to read, and many are elevated. Some of them are equipped with run off areas and some are protected by large white "marble bunkering".
Driving distance and GIR% are the dominant themes through the yearly leaderboards here. Landing areas are generous and rough is usually trimmed down a significant degree. There are some tough flag positions, and lengthy strong iron players usually emerge. As alluded to, players in the past have complained about the deceptive green contouring. The Earth course is predominantly exposed, and water features on a handful of holes including the island green 17th.
Worth a look
Nicolas Colsaerts - 151.00 or 26.00 - is the man that stands out at a price when combining the driving distance with greens in reg stats but the Belgian only shows a modest form line here. The first round leader market looms for the Belgian Bomber. Victor Dubuisson - 51.00 or 10.00 - may also be one to watch here on a course where he thrives. Victor ranked 6th in driving distance and 4th in greens in regulation in a return to form that saw him finish T3 last week at the Nedbank Challenge. He owns a 2nd and a 3rd here in his last three years - his other FPs being 13th in 2015 and 36th on his debut in 2012.
DP World Tour Championship Best bets
Apart from the obvious Race To Dubai contenders it's the Saffa's that stand out for me here as the men to potentially gate crash the party. Branden Grace - 23.00 or 5.00 - is on record as saying the Earth Courses is one he's extremely comfortable on. His form line would back this up reading 6-52-9-3 in four appearances here. Branden is in the top 30 of the European Tour's driving distance stats for the year but his lower ball flight will get plenty of run on the desert fairways. He ranked 8th for GIR at the Nedbank en route to a solid T3 finish and he's peaking at the perfect time.
Charl Schwartzel's - 41.00 - tee to green game sees him with another standout record at the Earth course but it's compatriot Louis Oosthuizen - 34.00 or 6.50 - who was bang in contention for most of the week at the Nedbank Challenge. A poor Sunday saw Louis record just a T9 but he ranked 10th in driving distance and 6th in GIR for the week. The top ball striker sits 16th and 17th for the year respectively in those stats. Unsurprisingly, he's finished in the top 13 places here 5 out of his last 7 (consecutive) appearances. Oosthuizen has 3 top 6 finishes in that time, and the major champion looks ready to win again.
Pablo Larrazabal finished 8th at the Turkish Airlines Open two weeks ago but seemed to find the Gary Player CC too hot to handle last week before closing with a Sunday 67 and taking to Twitter to announce his game felt in great shape ahead of Dubai. He has a decent record here averaging around 20th spot in a handful of appearances and he's also won in Abu Dhabi. The Spaniard is 10.00 to finish in the top 10 and is also worth a look in the first round leader market at a big price with an early start.