Golf Betting: Residents Bill Haas and Webb Simpson good value in the Wells Fargo Championship


Wells Fargo Championship betting market and overview

The first genuine quality field since The Masters assembles this week for the Wells Fargo Championship but this year sees a change of venue for the first time in the tournament’s history. Quail Hollow CC is the annual host of the Wells Fargo but Quail is holding the 2017 PGA Championship. Step up Eagle Point. Dustin Johnson - 6.00 - and Jon Rahm - 13.00 - lead the betting, with Adam Scott - 19.00 - and Phil Mickelson - 26.00 - also in the field. A number of big names always tee it up at Wells Fargo in preparation for the upcoming Players Championship.

Quite often a change of venue is to the detriment of the event but early reviews of Eagle Point are glowing. In a recent practice outing to the track, Hudson Swafford - 81.00 - said the condition of the course could only be compared to Augusta National, and Steven Bowditch backed that up yesterday on Twitter referring to the immaculate conditions.

“It’s a great golf course and fun to play. There’s not a blade of grass out of place. It made me want to stay longer than two days" said Harris English, who was with Swafford, and they were also accompanied by fellow Sea Island boys Brian Harman and Patton Kizzire.



 

The COURSE: Eagle Point Golf Club, 7,396 yards, par 72.

New courses can often be tough to profile for but if you want first hand access to the test this week, have a look at Zac Blair's Twitter timeline. Zac - 251.0 - provided a hole by hole picture guide in his practice round there on Sunday and also did a little video work showing us the reaction of the greens. They looked receptive and were running at an average speed which is expected to hit around 12' on the stimp for the tournament.



Some surfaces are multi-tiered with run offs and or false fronts, and the whole course is lush and treelined with pine straw ala Augusta, and white sands are also a strong feature. Rough looks to be down for the most part and said to be topped at 3 inches in the primary cut. Wind is forecasted to get up at times during the week but I expect a pretty low scoring affair with plenty of blue numbers. There is potentially one drivable par 4 in play and the reachable risk / reward par 5 18th should provide some drama.

 

Wells Fargo Championship best bets

A recurring theme down the leaderboards at Quail Hollow are the local North and South Carolina residents or players with ties to the area going well, and even though we have a new course in the vicinity, this may be a theme worth sticking to. Residents, Bill Haas, Webb Simpson and Carl Pettersson - 51.00 to top five - know the course more than most. The latter is a member of Eagle Point and owns the course record (62) there. Carl found something last time out, finishing 16th at Valero and could be one to watch at a big price, especially in the sub markets.

Bill Haas - 34.00 or 7.50 - was on the radar for Augusta and while his form has nose dived a bit in April, Haas knows this course very well, he likes it, and it suits his game. I'm placing a premium on strokes gained tee to green this week and each of Haas (20), Webb Simpson (18), and my third main Pick - Franceso Molinari (13) rank in the top 20 of this metric in 2017. Interestingly and coincidentally, market leaders DJ and Rahm rank 1 and 2 respectively in this stat.

Webb Simpson - 34.00 or 7.50 - was 11th last time out at the RBC Heritage where he was T3 after 54 holes and the Carolina native has been showing signs of top form lately. Francesco Molinari - 51.00 or 11.00 - is a tee to green specialist also ranking 2nd in fairways hit and excelling in distance control with his irons which is why I fancy him for Eagle Point. He comes here off the back of a 14-20-7-33-22 stroke play form line and he's mentioned in the past his ideal green speed is 12' on the stimp.

Last week's new team format at the Zurich Classic was well received by the majority but turned out to be the forecasted lottery with three of the top five fancied teams failing to make the cut. The team of Patton Kizzire - 151.0 or 31.0 - and Jason Dufner though finished T5th on -19. I mentioned Kizzire earlier and that he's been here recently to scout out and practice on the course. He was T32 at the RBC Heritage so he's trending into some form. Patton is renowned for his putting and on pure surfaces this week he could be a dark horse.