The numbers make it clear: Nico Rosberg is now the favourite to lift the Formula One world drivers' championship crown in 2016. His odds are 1.60 compared to Lewis Hamilton's 2.40.
But while he may be the favourite on paper, Hamilton remains the top tip to get the job done on the track. Here's why.
The reality of Rosberg's head start
Rosberg knows that doesn't count for as much as it used to. "It’s the longest season in F1 history with 21 races so that’s 18 to go," he reflected after beginning his championship bid with a hat-trick of wins in China.
"Lewis is not many points behind, I don’t know, something like 30 points, that’s not much." Rosberg's lead is 36 points but with 450 still available it'll be months before the title is decided.
Rosberg's had the rub of the green
Hamilton's first three races of the year can be summed up as follows: Two duff starts and a power unit failure. The latter confined him to a lowly seventh in China.
His slow getaways in the first two races were a cause for concern, but in Shanghai it seemed he'd got on top of them.
Significantly, Hamilton beat Rosberg to pole position in the two sessions where his car didn't break down. He's favourite to get pole position again this weekend, at 1.95. Given a typical weekend, there is every reason to believe Hamilton will come out on top.
Hamilton is five-nil up
Clearly Hamilton isn't panicked by Rosberg's early success and there's a good reason why. Each knows the other's strengths and weaknesses very well.
They've had three years together as team mates at Mercedes and two more before that in karts when they were younger. And what did those five seasons have in common?
Hamilton beat Rosberg at the end of each of them.
Hamilton has come from behind before
Two years ago Hamilton's situation arguably looked more perilous than it does today. With seven races remaining and 200 points up for grabs Rosberg held a 29-point lead in the championship.
Hamilton's response was impeccable, and dispelled any suggestion he might falter under pressure from his team mate. He won all bar one of the remaining seven races and denied Rosberg the title.
Hamilton isn't panicking
Having won three world championships and 43 races, Hamilton has learned a lot about taking the rough with the smooth.
"After all these years, experience has taught me to stay calm and keep pushing forwards when I get knocked back," he said earlier this week.
"I've been here before a few times now. A lot can happen over the next 18 race weekends and I have the utmost confidence in this team. But adversity is part of the journey: it brings us closer, makes us stronger and I know that together we'll bounce back, so I'm confident of better weekends to come."
Keith Collantine is the editor of Formula One blog F1 Fanatic