Italian Grand Prix Betting: Rosberg Now Favourite To Beat Hamilton To Title


The Belgian Grand Prix result was about as bad as it could have been for Lewis Hamilton. A costly collision with Nico Rosberg has left him 29 points behind his team mate in the championship - a deficit he won't be able to overturn in this weekend's Italian Grand Prix.

Since the season began, Hamilton has only led his team mate in the points once - following the Spanish Grand Prix. But he has usually been the bookmakers' favourite to prevail in the championship fight. Not any more. Rosberg's odds of claiming the championship this year have been trimmed to 1.50, while Hamilton's are the highest they've been all season at 2.45.

It's not hard to see why. With seven rounds to go there are 200 points up for grabs - 25 in each of the next six races and - in a controversial and deeply unpopular move - 50 for the final race at Abu Dhabi. There's still everything to play for between the two title contenders, but another setback for Hamilton this weekend at Monza would leave him with a serious predicament. You can work out how the title could be decided using the F1 Fanatic championship points calculator.

 

Can Ricciardo steal another win?

One of the themes of the season has been how Daniel Ricciardo has profited from Mercedes' occasional slip-ups. Every time they have faltered, whether due to unreliability, misfortune or - as in Belgium - contact between their drivers, the Red Bull driver has been perfectly placed to take advantage.

Now 54 points behind Rosberg, with three wins from the last six races, Ricciardo is even being tipped by some as an outside for the championship. This seems a little optimistic, even with several races remaining at tracks where his RB10 should go well - Singapore, the new Sochi street track in Russia and Yas Marina. Long odds of 34.00 may tempt a few gamblers, but you have to wonder what state the Mercedes pit wall would be in if Ricciardo, who hadn't even won a race when the season began, beat both their drivers to the crown in a considerably less powerful car.

One of the most impressive aspects of the Belgian race weekend was how Red Bull overcame the straight-line speed deficiencies of their car by trimming their wings back to the fullest to reduce drag. It's hard to imagine the same trick will work as well at Monza, however, where every team is likely to sacrifice downforce for top speed. 

Nonetheless the odds put Ricciardo as the most likely driver to beat either of the Mercedes to victory this weekend. With Hamilton and Rosberg on 1.80 and 2.60 respectively, Ricciardo offers returns of 9.00.

 

Williams look strong in Ferrari land

The car which should be best-suited to Monza's high speeds is the Williams-Mercedes FW36, which has consistently been one of the quickest in a straight line this year. Valtteri Bottas continues to impress in his second year of F1, and took his fourth podium finish of the season at Spa-Francorchamps, while team mate Felipe Massa is yet to score any.

Bottas is on odds of 18.00 to win this weekend, and with Massa on 41.00 it is definitely worth keeping an eye on what the latter's odds are for a podium this weekend.

Ferrari of course are the crowd favourites at Monza but their drivers' odds of victory tell you everything about their season so far: Fernando Alonso 25.00, Kimi Raikkonen 61.00.

Keith Collantine is the editor of Formula One blog F1 Fanatic.