The Spanish F1 GP is unpredictable and one particular stat shows why


The Spanish Grand Prix, which takes place this weekend, is often thought of as one of the less exciting Formula One races.

It's held at the Circuit de Catalunya, where teams rack up thousands of testing kilometres. The drivers could lap this circuit in their sleep.

Adding to its dreary reputation, Mercedes have locked out the front row of the grid for each of the last four races here.

But the surprising truth is that this supposedly 'boring' round of the championship has produced a different winner in every race going back a full decade.

Could that streak continue this weekend? Here are the three most likely picks according to Unibet.

 

Valtteri Bottas: 5.0

Lewis Hamilton's new teammate scored his first victory last week in Russia. He did it in style, too, scything past the Ferraris from third on the grid.

He's never been out-qualified by a team mate at this track but will pay out 4.5 if he takes pole position on Saturday. And he's beaten his team mate in every race here apart from his first appearance. That's a strong record, so with a competitive Mercedes underneath him now he has a great chance to be the 11th consecutive different Spanish Grand Prix winner.

He is third-favourite for victory behind 2014 winner Hamilton and 2011 winner Sebastian Vettel (both on 2.4).

Bottas is an interesting pick for the championship too, currently offering odds of 8.0. He goes into this round 23 points behind leader Sebastian Vettel and just ten off Hamilton.

 

Daniel Ricciardo: 20.0

Ricciardo should have won this race last year. He inherited the lead when the Mercedes pair took each other out, but a duff strategy meant team mate Max Verstappen took the honours instead.

Red Bull have been well off the pace in the opening races. But they're bringing a major car upgrade this weekend which they hope will be the making of their season.

Even if Red Bull do supply the goods this weekend, Ricciardo is still going to need luck on his side to win. He's the sixth favourite behind Raikkonen (won in 2008, on 12.0) and Verstappen (15.0).

 

Sergio Perez: 501.0

The seventh-favourite for victory, Felipe Massa, is another of the ten drivers who've won this race in the last ten years. The ex-Ferrari driver claimed victory in 2007.

If eighth-favourite Sergio Perez wins on Sunday then this race will have a first-time winner for the second year running. But his odds are astronomically high for a reason: his Force India hasn't even looked capable of getting a podium finish (which he's on 51.0 to do).

The team will introduce key fixes and upgrades for its chassis this weekend having started 2017 on the back foot. And Perez has more consecutive points finishes at present right now than any driver on the grid (14). But a win would be a major shock.

 

Keith Collantine is the editor of Formula One blog F1 Fanatic