Tom Lee's Top Racing Tips: Monday October 12


Enjoy it while you can - the clock continues to tick down on Windsor's 2015 fixture list - with this afternoon's eight race offering the penultimate occasion upon which we'll be able to enjoy action from the Berkshire venue this year.

With temperatures dropping racegoers will be huddled inside the bars discussing the weekend just gone, one which produced a new favourite for next year's 2,000 Guineas, in the shape of the Aidan O'Brien-trained Air Force Blue.

He heads into the winter on the back of a dazzling performace in Newmarket's Dewhurst Stakes, traditionally a key pointer to future Guineas success, with a 6/4 quote for Classic glory from the Unibet odds compilers, which is notable for being the best price on offer from any major bookmaker.

That makes him the shortest price antepost Guineas favourite since Frankel, but it's a position that looks fully justified given then War Front colt is now a three-time Group 1 scorer, following victories in the Curragh's Phoenix and National stakes, as well as a Saturday's runaway win. 

Newmarket Races : News Photo

In the more immediate future we need to try and find a solution to this afternoon's sport, and on a tricky looking day patience may be vital...

We'll wait until the second last race of the day at Windsor, the mile and a quarter Daily Unibet Early Prices From 9am Handicap to invest, and it's here that trainer Marcus Tregoning and apprentice rider Louis Steward team up with hood-wearing Sir Percy gelding Thames Knight.

Tregoning famously won both the Dewhurst and the Derby with Sir Percy back in 2005/06, and also did this column a favour when winning with another of Sir Percy's offspring, the filly Sweet P, here at Windsor seven days ago.   

Steward, who takes off a valuable three pounds, was on board that day and also enjoyed a hot streak when enjoying three winners in two days at the start of last week. 

He's excellent value for his claim, and gets the leg-up here on a horse who has been in excellent form in recording recent form figures of 3, 1, 1, 3, all of which came when Tregoning opted to fit the hood.

Both his wins came at Bath over today's distance, and his recent third was also a creditable effort in that he was giving weight to a highly progessive sort at Goodwood. 

Windsor Races : News Photo

The handicapper didn't touch him for that, and on better ground returning to a more conventional track he must hold a valid shout of returning to winning ways, especially as his rider's weight allowance means his is effectively only two pounds above his last winning mark.    

Elsewhere, perhaps the biggest danger to Neil Mulholland's chaser Ashcott Boy is that today's trip to Sedgefield could come too quickly after his easy 18 length win at Worcester.

Just four days have elapsed since his heroics at the Midlands track, but if ex-jockey Mulholland sees fit to let him line up a seven pound penalty can be shrugged off with ease in the Novices' Handicap Chase, after all he'll be set to rise by significantly more when the handicapper finally catches up with him!

Good luck!

 

Monday's best bets with Unibet:

3.10 Sedgefield - Seymour Civil Engineering Contractors Novices' Handicap Chase - 1 Ashcott Boy (win)

5.00 Windsor - Daily Unibet Early Prices From 9am Handicap - 9 Thames Knight (win)