Windsor Races betting: Tom Lee's Monday evening tips


A dry Sunday night in Berkshire means we've got Good ground for this evening's card at Royal Windsor, with runners set to go to post at 5.30pm for the opening six furlong maiden. 

We'll let that one play out without an investment, keeping the powder dry for race two on the card which materialises half an hour later, in the shape of a 0-85 sprint handicap over the flying five furlongs. 

Top weight Jacob's Pillow is ridden by Ryan Moore and represents the massively in-form William Haggas team, but he has to improve to take this off a mark of 85 after failing off a pound less at Bath last time. 

The 15/8 about the market leader with Unibet is perhaps short enough in a race where there isn't a shortage of plausible alternatives - one of which is the horse at the bottom of the handicap Newton's Law. 

Ridden by one of Saturday's Morning Line guests Richard Hughes - who was quick to point out his title aspirations on the show - this fella was all the rage for a course and distance maiden here seven days ago, but let the punters down at 8/11 as he was chinned good and proper by re-opposing Invincible Spirit filly My Inspiration.

Making her first start for Jim Boyle after leaving leaving Tim Easterby's yard (had also been with William Haggas last year), she showed the benefits of a change of scenery by making all and comfortably repelling the efforts of Newton's Law. 

Back in handicap company it'll be a different story, especially with a six pound penalty to shoulder, but her price of 12/1 with Unibet in a seven horse race perhaps underestimates her, especially as she's clearly improving and will have gained in confidence after putting her head in front, plus this is just start number eight and only a second for her new connections. 

Her overall form has a solid look, and importantly Nathan Alison's five pound claim negates all but a tiny portion of her penalty. 

With the wind in her sails My Inspiration is definitely the value play to continue an upward curve, and as such I'm backing her to win at 12's.

The third race on the card at 6.30pm - an extended 1m 3f seller which is pretty much the bottom rung of the ladder - provides the opportunity for a brief trip down memory lane for anyone who follows top level Irish racing....

Cast your mind back to the spring of 2011 and Irish 2,000 Guineas day at the Curragh - I was there working for RTE televidion and remember it like it was yesterday.

The shoulder races on that prestigious day every year feature the valuable Group 3 Curragh Cup, which three years ago was strongly fancied to go the way of 11/8 favourite Nebula Storm for John Oxx and Johnny Murtagh. 

Suffice to say it didn't. 

The 102-rated jolly trailed in last of the seven runners, missed a year through injury, and found himself sold to go hurdling in the UK with Gary Moore, who despite being something akin to a magician is yet to win with him in 10 tries.

For info, the winner of the Curragh Cup that May day in Kildare? None other than Ed Dunlop's Red Cadeaux, who ran valiantly on Channel 4 at Newbury just two days ago, and who in the interim period has run in eight countries, amassing over £4m in prize money, securing a Group 1 win in Hong Kong, plus placings in global events such as the Melbourne Cup!

That only strengthens the mindset that if Nebula Storm could somehow find even a glimmer of his old zest then he'd win tonight's race hopping on one leg while sporting a blindfold, but that's too big a risk to recommend given his desperate and increasingly reluctant efforts over hurdles.

One horse who might not be have been blessed with 10% of his natural ability but who is anything but reluctant is penalty kick specialist Incendo, who farms these races for a living.

Now trained in Lincolnshire by Conor Dore, this horse is unashamedly effective at this level, winning four claimers in the last five months. 

The 11/10 isn't a get rich quick scheme, but really ought to deliver in another weak race. 

Good luck!

 

Monday night's best bets at Windsor:

6.00 - 188bet Handicap - 2 My Inspiration (win)

6.30 - Warhorse Fireworks At Royal Windsor Racecourse Selling Stakes - 1 Incendo (win)