Darts Betting: PDC World Championship Tips


Simon Whitlock v Raymond van Barneveld

Raymond van Barneveld’s third round match with Gary Anderson was supposed to be the match of the tournament so far; two big hitters, both in good form and on the biggest stage of them all. It had all the makings of a classic. But Barney didn’t read the script and waltzed to a 4-0 victory. The Dutchman’s numbers weren’t anything spectacular in that match as he averaged just 93.35 and hit a relatively paltry four 180s. However, it was the clutch doubles that separated the two players with Barney repeatedly closing out a leg with the last dart in his hand.

Simon Whitlock, meanwhile, came through a final-set decider against Dave Chisnall with four ton-plus finishes. Again, the averages weren’t anything to get too excited about, but the Aussie’s ability to regularly take out big combination finishes proved to be the difference; specifically a 152 to save the match when Chizzy was waiting on 90 to book his place in the quarter-finals.

Looking forward to this match and it is, understandably, Barney that is the betting favourite. The Grand Slam champion has the highest tournament average of 99.14, compared to Whitlock’s 94.30, a 42.86% checkout rate, compared to the Aussie’s 41.30%, and has hit 16 to the Wizard’s 10 180s.

All of the numbers are weighted in Barney’s favour, except from the head-to-heads where Whitlock has won eight and lost just four of their 13 meetings.

But Van Barneveld has been a different beast over the past few months, compared to the last two years when most of those head-to-head matches have occurred. At odds of 1.60 for the win I can’t see past Barney here.

It may also be worth a few quid on there being fewer than 17.5 180s. Neither player has been particularly emphatic on the treble 20 bed this past fortnight, with most of their big moments coming from big checkouts. Odds of 1.83 for the highest checkout to be bigger than 137.5 also looks a good bet.

Phil Taylor v Andy Hamilton

There has been little, if anything, spectacular about Phil Taylor’s run to the quarter-final of the world championships. But it is usually at this stage of proceedings that The Power comes into his own.

Despite not setting the world alight in the first two weeks at Ally Pally, Taylor has never actually looked like exiting the tournament. Matches against Michael Mansell and Jerry Hendriks were never going to cause the world number one too many problems, but when pitted against Robert Thornton in round three many, myself included, anticipated an upset. The Thorn had beaten Taylor in their previous two televised clashes, but was halted in his tracks as The Power produced his highest average of the tournament to cruise through 4-0.

Andy Hamilton, meanwhile, has traversed a much trickier path to this point, seeing off James Richardson, Richie Burnett and Terry Jenkins; all players capable of beating any opponent on their day, but none capable of stopping The Hammer here.

What will worry Hamilton and his supporters ahead of this match is his dreadful record against Taylor. The pair have crossed paths 30 times in their long careers, and Hamilton has won just once and never in front of the cameras. His biggest chance to do so came in the Players Championship Finals at the beginning of this month. The Hammer powered into a 9-5 lead, but couldn’t close out the match and lost 10-9. Scars from that defeat run will run deep.

But if there is one player on the PDC circuit who can forget what has gone before then it is Andy Hamilton. He’s the 3.75 outsider going into this one and although I don’t expect him to win, it is a tempting price. Taylor is the clear 1.25 favourite.

One area where Hamilton certainly can prosper is the Most 180s market. Taylor has hit just six maximums so far this tournament, with Hamilton striking a much more prolific 16 180s. He’s the favourite, but at odds of 1.67 Hamilton represents value in this market.

Best Bets:

Highest checkout: Over 137.5 @ 1.83 in Van Barneveld v Whitlock

Most 180s: Hamilton @ 1.67