The US Presidential Election is finally upon us and all the signs still point to an Obama victory. You won't find a poll that has Romney gaining enough Electoral College votes to win the race so a victory for him would be considered a huge upset at this stage. Don't be fooled by any national polls that put Romney in the lead with voters overall; it is the Electoral College votes that matter and we've never seen him in the lead there at any point during the election season. Despite lots of talk of “Mitt-mentum” since the first televised debate at the start of October, that awkward phrase is unlikely to be heard after Tuesday.
States to watch
With this in mind, the question comes down to Obama's winning margine and which states will he take and lose. The states that look to be the closest run and genuine toss-ups are Colorado and Virginia. These two could really go either way. If these turn red on election night they will be signs that, maybe, just maybe, Romney has a bigger chance than he is getting credited with.
Florida is a famed state after the hanging chad debacle of 2000 but looks set for Romney this year. However an Obama win is not completely out of the question, and if Florida chooses the incumbent President than this would spell out the beginning of a disastrous night for Mitt Romney.
This leads us to Ohio, and the ultimate reason why Obama looks set to win. Every last dollar and second is being spent in Ohio right now in an attempt to take the state. However, if you wish to ignore the polls and consider what is happening on the ground, Romney held a huge rally there recently and George W Bush won Ohio twice last decade. So with this is mind Romney might be worth an outside punt and is good value. Again, if Romney wins Ohio we are in for a fascinating and possibly long night. Both candidates can win outright without Ohio but it will be a lot harder without the coveted 18 electoral votes.
With many state races down to a few percentage points, consider the possible influence of Gary Johnson, a libertarian candidate on the ballot next to Obama and Romney. Clearly Johnson has no chance of winning but the tiny percentages he will take from either candidatea - and Romney in particular - could play a big role in a few states. Oddly, you won’t find mention of Johnson in the media but he is the third most important person in this election and another reason why an Obama victory looks nailed on.
As for the actual number of states that each candidate will win, expect both to take more than 26. Romney is currently being offered at 1.50 but Obama is at a great value of 3.20. Expect a big night for Obama and taking that bet might be the best way to celebrate with him.
If you still believe Romney will run the President close then consider the chance that Romney will win the nationwide vote but lose the election. That is at 3.50 and might be a to way soften the blow if you've gambled on Mitt to win.
Millions of ballots have already been cast, to go with the billions of dollars that have been spent. It all comes down to whether a few thousand people in a few different states bother to vote or not. For entertainment purposes alone the US Presidential race remains the best show in town.