ATP Tennis Betting: Young's Cincy struggles could continue against in-form Paul


The second of the back-to-back Masters 1000 tournaments begins in earnest on Monday, with round one of the Western & Southern Open in Mason, Ohio.

It tuned into a poor week in Montreal after a good start and while that’s hardly surprising given the names that made it to the latter stages we didn’t get much luck either with match points not taken and on Sunday Roger Federer was injured in the final.

The condition of the Swiss is key to the outright betting this week and we’ll see how he shapes up if indeed he starts the tournament with the US Open just a fortnight away.

I mentioned the playing conditions in Cincy in my outright preview and the trends for this tournament in terms of underdog winner and tie breaks played are very similar to last week in Montreal.

Over the last three years in Cincy 37% of the matches featured a tie break, so we should be getting a price of 2.70 on ‘tie break played’ this week, while ‘no tie breaks’ should be a 1.59 chance.

The average number of underdog winners in Cincy in 2014, 2015 and 2016 was 32% and there’s definitely one favourite that looks ripe for taking on today.

Donald Young vs Tommy Paul

Young has a dismal record here in Cincy and it may be due to the conditions here not being to his liking, with Young liking to play with a lot of top spin on his forehand.

It skids onto you more in Cincy than a lot of other venues and I’d suggest that the results of Young, Rafa Nadal (by his standards) and Jack Sock here all have something to do with the skiddy bounce of the balls.

Whatever the reason, the bottom line is that Young is 0-5 and he’s never even won a set at this tournament in losses to the likes of Jesse Levine and Alex Bogomolov Jr.

He hasn’t bothered coming back since 2012 and his enthusiasm for Cincy is likely to be much lower than the in-form Paul, who’s been playing some great ball lately and he’s getting the results to back it up too.

The 20-year-old has had a great start to his main level career, with excellent stats (admittedly from only seven matches) of 83.8% holds of serve and 22.7% breaks (106.5 total) and wins over Lucas Pouille and Gilles Muller in Washington DC last time out.

So, he’s already beaten one leftie in Muller lately, and he has his chances today against Young, whose stats on hard at main level over the past year are indicative of his career as a whole on hard courts: a 95.8 total.

This is winnable for Paul and he looks the pick of the odds-against shots on Monday.

Elsewhere in Monday’s 11 men’s singles matches over 10.5 games in set one seems very likely when Ivo Karlovic and Jiri Vesely clash on Court 4 at around 16:00 UK time.

Our outright Sam Querrey should have few problems with Stefan Kozlov, whose hold/break stats at main level are dismal, with only 57.4% of his service games won at this level.

Mischa Zverev and Fernando Verdasco look like they’ve got a tie break in them, but there’s no value there at evens, and the two Frenchmen Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet appear to have comfortable routes to round two versus John-Patrick Smith and Christopher Eubanks respectively.

Frances Tiafoe is in poor form at the moment, winning only one of his last nine matches at all levels and he’s only played a leftie on a hard court at main level twice in his career (lost both times).

He takes on Maximilian Marterer today and the German is due a win at main level having lost all 12 he’s played so far, but the win will come and it wouldn’t be a shock if it were today.

Kyle Edmund should be beating Joao Sousa in these conditions, but 1.57 doesn’t appeal much, and the Paul bet looks the one on Monday.

Best Bet
1.5 points win Paul to beat Young at 2.45