Wednesday on Week 17 of the ATP World Tour brought us one winner from two best bets on a fascinating day in Bucharest and Barcelona.
The day began in poor fashion for me when a really out of sorts Andreas Seppi succumbed in three sets to Lukas Rosol, who has improved on the dirt lately, but the Italian will be as disappointed as I was with his performance.
Seppi’s defeat downed my double, the second leg of which was won by Albert Ramos, but my fortunes improved later in the day as my wager on Gilles Simon on the handicap proved to be a winner.
It was far from comfortable viewing for the two hours and 40 minutes that it took for the defending champion to get past Jarkko Nieminen, but Simon got the job done in the end.
Over in Barcelona there was a huge shock as David Ferrer was taken out by Dmitry Tursunov, which was a result that I’d be amazed if anyone predicted given the respective abilities on clay of the two players.
There was also an eye-opening loss for Grigor Dimitrov, who let a good lead slip against Tommy Robredo. Thursday’s schedule in Barcelona sees Rafa Nadal, Tomas Berdych, Nico Almagro and Juan Monaco all in action.
Of these, Berdych may be the one who struggles the most against Tommy Robredo. The Berdman has struggled on the dirt so far and Robredo has found the winning touch. The Spaniard has a shot at 3.15 today.
But I prefer siding with Philipp Kohlschreiber, who takes on the hit and miss skills of leftie Martin Klizan at around 12pm UK time today.
Kohlschreiber is certainly the more reliable of the two and although Klizan has started to find his feet again after a really poor run he can’t be trusted to produce his best on any given day.
It will be the first meeting of the pair, but Kohlschreiber has won 14 of his last 18 against left-handers and two of his four losses were against Nadal.
He’s had a struggle of a year because of injury, but he’s had enough matches under his belt of late to be in good shape for this one and 1.68 is a reasonable enough price on the German for me.
Over in Bucharest David Goffin is in with a decent chance at odds against when playing flaky Florian Mayer first up, while Mikhail Youzhny vs Victor Hanescu looks one for the overs.
I wouldn’t be interested in Janko Tipsarevic’s match unless it was to side with opponent Santiago Giraldo, but I like Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky this afternoon.
GGL gave us a nice winner the other day and he’s one to stick with when his fragile confidence is flowing. Against a limited opponent like Stako, 1.70 is good enough for me to part with my money.
Stakhovsky has only once in his entire career reached the quarter-finals of a clay court tour level event and that was back in 2010 in Nice. He didn’t make it past the second round at all last season on the main tour.
Losses to the likes of Dustin Brown and Pavol Cervanak on clay, litter his record and by and large he’s played the Challenger circuit this year. Garcia-Lopez should be too much for him today.
Back Kohlschreiber to beat Klizan at 1.68
Back Garcia-Lopez to beat Stakhovsky at 1.70
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