ATP Bercy Betting: Motivated Cilic to undo Del Potro


Another dramatic and unpredictable end of season day at the BNP Paribas Masters yielded a profit for my wagers on Tuesday in Bercy.

Kei Nishikori did things the hard way, but got the job done in the end against a clearly injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who will probably be relieved that he hasn’t qualified for the World Tour Finals given the way that his knee looks at the moment.

Novak Djokovic was surprisingly pushed by 22-year-old qualifier Pierre-Hugues Herbert, which foiled my second bet of the day, and the Frenchman could have taken the first set against the world number two.

There are 12 matches on the card today at the Palais Omnisports and Rafa Nadal, Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomas Berdych are among the stars in action on day three.

Of the big guns I would expect Berdych to win pretty comfortably, while Rafa may just take some time to attune himself to conditions here after not playing for a couple of weeks and taking a beating last time out from Del Potro.

 

Juan Martin Del Potro vs Marin Cilic (BET and WATCH LIVE on Unibet TV from 12.05 GMT)

Delpo has a potentially tough one against Cilic, who has more in the tank than most after his enforced break from the tour and who presumably will be keen to put on a good showing here after that drug ban.

If I were on Del Potro today at around 1.23 I’d be concerned that he doesn’t break serve enough and often makes things tougher than they should be.

The Argentine does have a fine record against Cilic of 7-2, but his record here in Bercy is a disappointing 5-4 and this to me looks a great opportunity for the Tower of Tandil to have a rest after three straight finals and ahead of the O2 next week.

Marin has had a three setter here to get himself back into the swing of things and 2.02 about the Croatian +1.5 sets here looks a bet.

 

Roger Federer vs Kevin Anderson (BET and WATCH LIVE on Unibet TV from 18.35 GMT)

The Swiss maestro showed patches of decent form last week in making the final in Basel, but to me he’s too hit-and-miss these days to be backing at short prices like today’s 1.17 against the dangerous Anderson.

Federer was tested in every match he played last week other than by Adrian Mannarino, who was beaten before he walked onto court and Anderson has the weapons to cause the Swiss some problems.

The pair have never met on tour and if big Kevin serves well he could make it a tricky night for Fed, whose record here isn’t the best.

Roger is in the same boat as Delpo with regard to rest ahead of London and how committed he is this week has to be up for debate.

I’m considering a couple of wagers here, with the 3.65 about Anderson winning set one appealing, as does the over 9.5 games in set one at 1.68.

 

Milos Raonic vs Robin Haase (BET and WATCH LIVE on Unibet TV from 19.35 GMT)

The big Canadian is a big favourite here against Haase, but the Dutchman is showing some good form of late and after a well-deserved day off yesterday he could prove a tough opponent for Milos.

Haase really struggled to come through qualifying, but he’s now played three matches here and he’ll be used to conditions, while Raonic hasn’t played since losing to Benoit Paire in a flat effort in Stockholm and a lot of tennis since the US Open may have caught up with Raonic.

There is only a tiny chance that Milos can qualify for London next week and I’m not sure the courts here are quick enough for him, as his 1-2 record in Bercy may indicate.

Haase will certainly give this a go, while it’s not certain that Raonic will and Haase +3.5 games appeals here, as Milos may find it tough to break Robin’s serve in the groove that the latter is in at the moment.

 

Best bets

Back Cilic +1.5 sets to beat Del Potro at 2.02

Back over 9.5 games in set one of Federer/Anderson at 1.68

Back Haase +3.5 games to beat Raonic at 1.68