Tuesday on the ATP Tour proved to be another good one, with my ninth straight day of profit in what has been a great start to the 2013 season.
This time it was Marcel Granollers who obliged with a straight sets win over Fabio Fognini to land what I thought were generous pre-match odds of 1.75 and those that were on my other suggestions of Denis Istomin and Ryan Harrison would have enjoyed a bumper payout.
Wednesday night’s schedule in Sydney sees another opportunity for Granollers to progress against Italian opposition, as he takes on the very beatable Andreas Seppi on the Ken Rosewall Arena in the relative cool of the evening – or around 10am UK time.
Granollers is one who is still consistently underrated by the layers and at 2.28 he’s worth sticking with against an opponent who has a poor record in Australia and who the Spaniard has beaten in their two most recent meetings.
Until last night’s three set struggle of a win over world number 191 John Millman, Seppi had lost his previous four in a row and he hasn’t beaten a player ranked as high as Granollers on an outdoor hard court since October 2010 when he defeated Marin Cilic in Shanghai.
The Italian hasn’t won more than two straight matches on outdoor hard since Doha a year ago and his overall win/loss last season on the surface was 6-11.
The only time that Granollers and Seppi have played on a hard court was at the US Open of 2010 when the Spaniard came from two sets down to win in five and their most recent meeting was on clay in Stuttgart in 2011 which resulted in a three set win for Granollers.
All things considered Granollers is surely the value of this closely matched pair tonight and at odds-against I’ll be on him tonight.
Elsewhere, Bernard Tomic is again very short at 1.37 to beat defending champion Jarkko Nieminen considering that the Aussie has only once won in straight sets over a leftie in his last 11 attempts – and that was against Carsten Ball on grass. Bernie has been impressive lately, but not enough for me to start believing in him at that sort of price just yet.
Best Bet: Back Granollers to beat Seppi at 2.28.