ATP Tennis Betting: All-Canadian Final To Witness A Tight First Set


Sunday’s final of the Citi Open in Washington DC is set for around 20:00 UK time and will be an all-Canadian affair.

Vasek Pospisil and Milos Raonic might well have peaked too soon, with their home Masters 1000 having already started in Toronto, but both should still be motivated now that it has a little extra domestic importance on it.

 

Milos Raonic vs Vasek Pospisil – Live on Unibet TV

Raonic and Donald Young landed my best bet of yesterday when the pair went over the 9.5 total games mark in set one of their semi final to keep Raonic’s streak of long winning openers against lefties going.

Pospisil had a much tougher day on Saturday, having to come back and play a three-set semi final after rain had delayed his quarter final with Santi Giraldo on Friday, so one would expect Vasek to be the more fatigued today.

Indeed, Pospisil’s clash with Richard Gasquet last night was a two-and-a-half hour affair, which could have gone either way, and it would have been quite draining for the Canadian.

It’s tempting to think that both of these men will have more than one eye on next week in Toronto, as both are defending big rankings points – Pospisil has 360 coming off next week and Raonic has 600 to defend.

Pospisil in particular can’t really afford to be below par next week after spending a long time out with injury and not winning a match from Melbourne until Queen’s Club, but this week’s DC run has already earned him at least 300, so it’s not as big a deal as it otherwise could have been.

They’ll both want to be in good order for the Canadian fans though, with tennis in Canada on such a high right now, but hopefully we won’t see a lacklustre offering from either player tonight.

They’ve met five times at all levels as professionals, with three wins in Futures for Pospisil and two wins on the ATP Tour for Raonic and their Montreal semi last year was a very close run thing.

Milos edged it, despite winning eight fewer points in total, while predictably there were only three breaks of serve in the 30 total games in that one.

Pospisil’s motivation may well come from today being his first ever ATP World Tour final after previously losing in three semi-finals in a deciding set plus one by retirement, so he’ll be happy to have seen the back of that run of defeats.

Raonic will be playing his 11th ATP World Tour final and he’s split his first 10 in terms of win/loss ratio at 5-5, with his only loss to a non top-20 player being the defeat to Jurgen Melzer in Memphis back in 2012.

The weather is set to be hot and humid again in DC today, with the threat of thunderstorms hanging in the air, so we may get delayed again on Sunday and it will be played in quick conditions.

Obviously, the serve will be key in this match and we’ve seen 74 aces so far from Milos this week and 29 from Pospisil, with break stats reading 13 breaks of serve by Pospisil and only five by Raonic.

The two breaks by Raonic against Young yesterday came when The Don was serving to stay in the sets – both of which Milos served first in – and although we’ll probably see a Raonic win here there’s not much value in it at 1.24.

I am interested in a couple of options here, with the second set under 9.5 games holding some possible value at a tempting 2.80 and the first set over 10.5 equally interesting at 2.20.

The first set will surely be tight, with Raonic having been broken only once all week and barely breaking his opponents either, a decent show on serve from Vasek should see that one home.

Equally, I can envisage a let down from Pospisil should he lose a tight first set, which makes the set two unders a good choice for bigger priced punters.

 

Best Bet

Back over 10.5 games in set one at 2.20