It was another profitable day’s ATP tennis betting in Toronto on Thursday, as we managed to avoid the seeds who fell on a rough day at the Rogers Cup.
Ivan Dodig’s fast start in taking the opening set against David Ferrer meant that my only bet of the day – on Dodig +1.5 sets – was a stress-free winner, with the Croatian taking it 6-1.
Beforehand, Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka had fallen in straight sets to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Kevin Anderson respectively and Richard Gasquet had withdrawn prior to his match with Andy Murray.
Roger Federer was severely tested by Marin Cilic after blowing a slew of match points for a 2-0 win, while Milos Raonic was made to work hard by Julien Benneteau, as was Grigor Dimitrov by Tommy Robredo.
Grigor Dimitrov vs Kevin Anderson – Live on Unibet TV
This 20:00 UK time start has seen Dimitrov come in for some support this morning, with his price reducing to 1.50 from an initial 1.60.
I can only assume this to be because perhaps too much emphasis was placed on possible fatigue for Dimitrov, who did look very tired during the latter stages of the Robredo match.
This could be due to lingering effects of the illness he withdrew from Washington DC with last week and it is a little bit of guesswork as to how fit he’ll be today.
It could be that he’s running a bit low on energy after a hard season in which new coach Roger Rasheed has pushed him harder than he’d ever worked before.
That would make sense, but in terms of the prior meetings between Anderson and Dimitrov there are six to consider, with the Bulgarian winning the last three.
They’ve all been tough though and Kev has won at least a set in five of their six prior meetings and this is largely down to how much Grigor has left in the tank.
The betting move would suggest he has enough, but they’re not always right and I like the idea of backing Anderson to either win set one or take it past the 10.5 total games mark – both at odds against – rather than taking Dimi at 1.50.
Their last three opening sets have all been tight and Grigor has been slow to start this week and perhaps will again if he’s got fatigue issues.
Anderson is coming off a fine win over Wawrinka and he’ll be very confident after that straight sets win over the Australian Open champion.
Either of those two bets seems the way forward, with slight preference for the Anderson set one win at 2.32.
Roger Federer vs David Ferrer – Live on Unibet TV
Based on Ferrer’s level so far this tournament and prior record against this opponent he has very little chance in the 02:00 UK time start, but the same could be said, albeit to a lesser extent, about Cilic yesterday.
Marin had been dire until a headline match against Federer and suddenly he lifted several notches, but does Ferrer have that ability to raise his game to a different level?
Probably not and Federer fans will enjoy the 14-0 head-to-head in Roger’s favour that he brings into this encounter, which will be his first with Ferrer since the end of 2012.
Arguably, Ferrer’s best chance of beating Federer was last year when Fed was poor, but it’s tough to make a case for the Spaniard here on all recent form and he may well be struggling with that arm problem still.
The only bet I’d consider here would be the under 9.5 games in set one at 1.92, and especially if the Swiss, who turned 33 today, serves first in the match.
Back Anderson to win set one vs Dimitrov at 2.32