Unibet tennis expert Sean Calvert provides his Tuesday tips ahead of a packed day of ATP action in Dubai, Sao Paulo and Acapulco...
Tuesday on week nine of the ATP World Tour is an incredibly busy day, with 33 matches across the three events in Dubai, Sao Paulo and Acapulco.
We began the week with one winning bet from two when Joao Souza took down Robin Haase in a match that just edged past the overs mark, while somehow Pablo Cuevas lost to Horacio Zeballos despite scoring more points and leading in all the stat categories.
Tuesday in Dubai has 11 matches on its schedule and I will be continuing to take on a player who looks to be on the downgrade and on his way out of the top-10.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1.16, Victor Hanescu 5.25 – BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 16.05 GMT
We landed a few bets in Marseille last week by siding against Tsonga in certain markets and with the Frenchman looking to me to be past his best in sight of his 29th birthday his matches offer some value at the moment.
Tsonga’s notoriously slow starts to matches and lack of ability to break the serve of his opponents – he’s ranked 91st in return games won this season – makes the first set overs always worth a bet and today the over 9.5 games at 1.83 looks good.
Bearing in mind that Tsonga’s best surface tends to be indoors, where he’s won seven of his 10 career titles, he still only won one opening set all season that didn’t go to a tie break and that was against the feeble hard court presence of Filippo Volandro – and even that went to 7-5.
That’s despite having played six matches on quick indoor hard and his overall record reads nine from 10 opening sets in tour matches in 2014 going past the 9.5 games mark.
Hanescu is a decent server on his day and played well in Doha in similar conditions earlier this season when he beat Fernando Verdasco and Joao Sousa before losing a tight one to Florian Mayer. He can push Tsonga past the 9.5 games mark again.
Elsewhere in Dubai I’m tempted by the overs in Juan Martin Del Potro’s match against Somdev Devvarman, with Delpo’s wrist still in a questionable state it may well take him more than 19.5 games to see off Devvarman, who’s coming off a good spell of form at home in India.
On the clay of Sao Paulo I like the look of a couple of underdogs tonight in Andreas Haider-Maurer and Alejandro Gonzalez.
The former faces the bang out of form Julian Reister, who hasn’t won a match in 2014 so far and has retired twice already this campaign, while Haider-Maurer has been more competitive on the Golden Swing and looks value at 2.16.
Gonzalez has been struggling a tad of late, but he has a good opportunity against out of touch veteran Potito Starace, who hasn’t won a tour match since Rome last year. The 2.15 on Gonzalez seems reasonable to me
Over in Acapulco Andy Murray makes his debut and it could be tricky if Pablo Andujar plays with the same aggressive intent that he showed against Rafa Nadal a few days ago. The various handicap options on the Spaniard could be interesting in that 4am UK time encounter.
John Isner 1.58, Ivo Karlovic 2.30 – starts at 22.05 GMT
Overs backers will no doubt be excited at the prospect of Isner and Karlovic meeting at 10pm UK time tonight and they’ll be going for their seventh straight tie break of their career series in that one.
Over 10.5 games in set one looks a cert between this pair, who are the 105th and 108th ranked players in return games won this season. Ivo is second in the service games won category, while Isner is seventh. It would be stunning if this one didn’t involve at least one tie break.
Feliciano Lopez 1.52, Edouard Roger-Vasselin 2.45 – starts at 22.05 GMT
Lopez has shown very little again this season so far and looked very much out of sorts in a really poor loss to Steve Johnson last week at Delray Beach, while ERV comes into this having played well in Marseille, where he won the doubles and made the quarters in the singles.
The Frenchman has had by far the better 2014, with a final in Chennai and three last eight showings, while Lopez hasn’t won more than two straight matches all season.
It will be their first meeting and if the travel hasn’t affected ERV too much he can land this at odds of 2.45.
Back over 9.5 games in set one of Tsonga/Hanescu at 1.83
Back Haider-Maurer to beat Reister at 2.15
Back Gonzalez to beat Starace at 2.16
Back over 10.5 games in set one of Isner/Karlovic at 1.75
Back Roger-Vasselin to beat Lopez at 2.45