ATP Tennis Betting: Carreno Busta can cover the handicap against Anderson

Wednesday at the 2017 Coupe Rogers is a busy one, with the second round completing, so we have 14 matches on the card on day three in Montreal.

It was a perfect day for my shortlisted bets on Tuesday, with all four of them winning, and so we found a 2.75 winner and a 2.07 winner for the best bets and those who took the other two would also have had success at 2.75 and 2.30.

We have both of our outrights in action at the Uniprix Stadium today, with French pair Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils playing today, and I think we have to add one to the portfolio in Grigor Dimitrov.

Monfils had both legs strapped up below the knee in round one and although you can never tell with the dramatic Monfils his chances of going all the way look slimmer, while the draw has opened up nicely for Dimitrov but his price is the same.

It was a good draw for Dimitrov anyway, but now that Dominic Thiem (and Tomas Berdych) is out it’s even better and there’s no reason at all (other than, well, it’s Dimitrov) that he shouldn’t make at least the semis, so 16.0 on him making the final is a bet.

Roger Federer is holding all the prices up and I still think there’s a reasonable chance of getting him beaten here this week, so we just need Dimitrov to not throw in a poor match as he so often does.

I’m also tempted to put Juan Martin Del Potro into the mix as well at the same price, with Rafa Nadal far from a certainty to make the final in his first event on hard for a while.

On to today’s matches then and we’re set for another cool day, with some rain around in the early afternoon and not much in the way of wind.

Robin Haase vs Ernesto Escobedo

I’m not sure what’s going on with the prices for this 17:30 UK time (12:30 local) start on Court 5, but 1.40 on Haase is terribly short given his record in hard court Masters 1000 events and his stats.

Only once in his career has the Dutchman won back-to-back matches at a hard court Masters 1000 tournament and that was when he shocked Stan Wawrinka in the 2015 Indian Wells event.

In all he’s won just 34% of his matches on hard at this level (including indoor hard) and only twice since 2011 has he made it past round two at any North American outdoor hard court tournament.

One of those was the Indian Wells event when he beat Wawrinka and the other one was Acapulco last year when he beat the world number 809 then Aljaz Bedene.

There’s less than 2% between Haase and Escobedo on their respective service hold/break stats on outdoor hard at main level over the past year (14 matches for Haase and 12 for the American), with Haase on 96.3 and Escobedo on 94.8.

Haase plays with quite a lot of top spin (which tends to aid him at altitude) so he’s not likely to rush Escobedo with flat hitting and the latter will therefore get the time on the ball he enjoys.

Lucky loser Escobedo took advantage of Berdych’s very late withdrawal by beating Nikoloz Basilashvili in round one and he’ll have no pressure on him here and much to gain from this unexpected opportunity.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Kevin Anderson

The singles match that follows Haase and Escobedo on on Court 5 also looks to be priced rather generously in favour of the underdog, with PCB a 2.90 chance to beat Anderson.

The Spaniard proved his fitness after a few months out with an abdominal issue on Tuesday by beating another big serving, big hitting power player in Karen Khachanov and he’s more than good enough to worry Anderson here.

It doesn’t seem to be as quick in Montreal as it was in Washington DC and with cool weather as well conditions won’t favour Anderson this week as much as they did in DC.

It’s Carreno Busta that leads the one-year hold/break stats on outdoor hard at main level, with a total of 107 (81% holds/26% breaks) compared to the 104.8 of Anderson (88% holds/16.8% breaks) and the Spaniard made the semis of Indian Wells earlier on this year too.

PCB has improved hugely on hard courts over the last year or so and it’s hard to see Anderson’s fairly limited return game breaking this opponent often enough to cover a -3.5 game handicap.

In Anderson’s last 25 best-of-three set matches versus top-20 opposition on a hard court he’s covered a -3.5 game handicap only once, which was against a sulky Jack Sock last week in DC.

Others to consider today include taking on a reportedly injured Milos Raonic, who was given the latest possible start of Wednesday night at around 20:30 local time instead of his originally planned Tuesday match.

The nature of his supposed injury isn’t clear, so there’s a little bit of guesswork in that one if backing Adrian Mannarino, whose record versus players of the host nation on outdoor hard at main level is 9-7.

If I weren’t already on Tsonga I’d probably be backing him today against Sam Querrey at what looks a decent price, given the lethargy that Querrey showed yesterday when he could easily have lost to Vincent Millot.

After the long week that Querrey had in the heat and humidity of Los Cabos last week and his poor record at the Canada Masters I fancy Tsonga to come out on top here and no tie breaks is a decent price too.

If Monfils is fit he stands a great chance of beating an off-colour Kei Nishikori, who has been poor this year by his high standards and Lamonf is due one against the Japanese, having lost to him twice in final set tie breaks (and once in a final set) in the last year.

Jack Sock should have too much power for the ageing David Ferrer, but doesn’t look great value with his poor attitude in mind from last week (and numerous other times) in mind.

Hyeon Chung could be one to consider against the still struggling David Goffin, but no tie breaks is perhaps a better bet there if a price of 1.70 or better comes along.

The pair have tie breaks per set ratios of 0.10 and 0.07 respectively on outdoor hard at main level over the last 31 matches (12 months) for Goffin and 10 matches (16 months) for Chung.

I’m also tempted again by the price on a tie break for Denis Shapovalov, but Juan Martin Del Potro is likely to be less generous than Rogerio Dutra Silva, who blew four match points for the second straight match.

But perhaps the tie break played in Rafael Nadal’s clash with Borna Coric might be a better bet, with Rafa coming off a break after grass and the Spaniard does have a bit of a record of playing breakers in his first match in Montreal.

Of his five completed opening matches in Montreal four have featured tie breaks, including the last two versus Sergiy Stakhovsky and Ivan Dodig, and of course he’s lost two of his three career clashes with today’s opponent.

I like the idea of a tie breaks double here, with over 0.5 breakers in Nadal’s match and under 0.5 tie breaks in Tsonga’s match being a combined 6.36 chance for small stakes.

Best Bets
1 point win Dimitrov to make the final at 16.0
1.5 points win Carreno Busta +3.5 games to beat Anderson at 1.73
1 point win Escobedo to beat Haase at 2.95
0.5 points double under 0.5 tie breaks in Tsonga/Querrey and over 0.5 tie breaks in Nadal/Coric at 6.36