ATP Tennis Betting: Chung has the edge over Mannarino in Montreal clash

It’s last-16 day at the 2017 Coupe Rogers on Thursday in Montreal, with eight matches set for day four at the Uniprix Stadium.

As is often the case when you’ve had an excellent day the day before not much went right on Wednesday in Montreal, with no winners and one (it should have been two) of the outrights gone.

Even the weather forecast was wrong, with strong winds not forecast, and Ernesto Escobedo was one of many to struggle on serve. The American landed only 44% and consequently had little chance against a Robin Haase who served very well.

Pablo Carreno Busta was a game short of the handicap in a disappointing display, while we did get no tie breaks in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s clash with Sam Querrey, but the Frenchman was beaten in three.

Gael Monfils somehow survived a typically crazy match against Kei Nishikori, while Grigor Dimitrov just about came through in three against Mischa Zverev.

There were a few decent nuggets in there, with Milos Raonic’s injury reports proving to be true providing a big-priced winner on Adrian Mannarino, while the 3.0 on tie break played again proved a good play in the Denis Shapovalov match.

The weather report suggests there’ll be barely any wind on Thursday on a partly cloudy day, with 25C temperatures.

Monfils is back in action early on Thursday at 12:30 local time (17:30 UK) and he takes on Roberto Bautista Agut against whom Lamonf has a perfect 3-0 record and hopefully that marathon clash with Nishikori hasn’t rendered him exhausted for today.

RBA has held serve only 66.7% of the time against Monfils, with the Frenchman holding 93.3% of the time against RBA, so it’s been a tough match-up for the Spaniard, who was ranked higher than Monfils each time they met.

Anyone who watched Monfils yesterday wouldn’t fancy betting on him today though and that’s one to watch from behind the nearest sofa.

Roger Federer brings a 16-0 record into what will probably be his last career clash against David Ferrer, who was a shade fortunate that Jack Sock hurt his knee in the second set of their match on Wednesday.

Ferrer was nowhere near beating Federer even in his peak scurrying days, so it would be stunning if he beat the Swiss maestro this time.

Alexander Zverev is yet to even create a break point against Nick Kyrgios at main level in two defeats to the Aussie and the German did have his left ankle strapped up during a tight win over Richard Gasquet on Wednesday, so there are enough reasons for me not to side with Zverev here.

The unpredictability of Kyrgios is another reason not to get involved in this one and I prefer siding with Hyeon Chung in his match at (not before) 23:30 UK time on Banque Nationale Court.

Hyeon Chung vs Adrian Mannarino

I said yesterday that Mannarino could be a chancy one against a reportedly injured Raonic, but you never know how true these rumours are, and as it happened the Canadian was really struggling yet again.

He’s getting close to Nishikori levels of unreliability these days and the issue was his left wrist, however the general feebleness of his performance suggested there may even have been other issues at play too.

It made it fairly easy for Mannarino, but this should be tougher, with Chung looking better by the match after his own injury problems following the French Open.

That was a badly timed injury for Chung, who had a superb clay swing and was looking more and more like he’s ready to step up and contend for titles, so I’m expecting a decent spell on the hard courts if he can stay clear of injury.

Chung leads the service hold/break stats marginally over the past 12 months on outdoor hard at main level with a total of 100.9, which is made up of a very low hold mark and a very high break mark (66.7%/34.2%).

Consequently, he plays few tie breaks, and a price of around 1.70 on no tie breaks here could be reasonable value.

Mannarino is below the 100 mark on his hold/break totals on 98.5 and for me Chung has the edge in this one, although whether it’s fabulous value at 1.84 is another matter.

Chung has won four of his last five against lefties, but he’s rarely played any on hard courts, with his most recent meetings with them coming on clay, however he did beat Feli Lopez here a couple of rounds ago.

On what looks to me to be a day short on value the other option that looks likely is over 10.5 in set one of Kevin Anderson’s big serving clash with Sam Querrey.

Unsurprisingly, 10 of the last 12 opening sets that this pair have contested went past 10.5 games, so on that you’d conclude that 1.93 on over 10.5 games in set one is decent value.

Tsonga was disappointing against Querrey on Wednesday, but given the American’s recent good form I’m not sure I’d have Anderson as favourite when also considering the 9-5 career series lead that Querrey has.

Hopefully, Dimitrov will step it up against Robin Haase today, as his very handy draw continues to usher him towards the semi finals, and he’d play the winner of Jared Donaldson and Diego Schwartzman.

The one looks finely balanced, with the more orthodox hard court game of Donaldson up against the excellent defence and returning skills of Schwartzman and there’s little to split them on the hold/break stats (105.1 plays 106.3).

I was courtside (on and off) for their match on the grass in Eastbourne recently and there were so many breaks of serve and swings in momentum that I wouldn’t fancy betting on this one.

Finally, having hoped the top half of the draw would be tricky for Rafael Nadal it’s turned out to be the opposite, with Del Potro, Raonic and Tsonga all falling early and the winner of Zverev and Kyrgios would appear to be the only thing stopping Rafa making the final now.

It’s hard to see Denis Shapovalov, who’s become the youngest player into a M1000 last-16 match since Nadal in 2004, overcoming the Spaniard, but if he plays as freely as he can he could make it interesting for a while.

Best Bets
1.5 points win Chung to beat Mannarino at 1.84
1 point win over 10.5 games in set one of Anderson/Querrey at 1.93