ATP Tennis Betting: Coric looks good value against struggling Goffin in Miami


The rain came and washed out the last hours of play on Friday at the 2015 Miami Open, so we’ve a packed schedule on Saturday, with 20 matches starting today.

We managed to get one good winner over the line on Friday before the heavens opened and that was an odds-against success for my ‘value bet’ in the form of Santi Giraldo, who bagelled Robin Haase in their deciding set.

Before that Austin Krajicek backers can consider themselves a little unfortunate, as the American had a set point in the opener before losing a tight one 7-6, 7-5 to Bernard Tomic.

Fernando Verdasco barely started his match with James Duckworth before play was called off and he’ll continue that one today.

David Ferrer vs Federico Delbonis

Unlike at Indian Wells last week conditions in Miami suit Ferrer down to the ground and the 2013 finalist looks to have a comfortable starter against Delbonis here.

The Spaniard always struggles at Indian Wells and his defeat there was hardly a shock, but otherwise in 2015 Ferrer has been excellent and he’s compiled a 19-2 record so far this season.

In Miami he wins 69 percent of his matches and he’s 11-1 here against players ranked outside the top-50, such as Delbonis.

Ferrer has won nine of those 11 in straight sets, with the only exceptions being against John Isner in 2009 and Juan Carlos Ferrero in 2005 – both of which were three set wins.

Delbonis has no sort of record on hard courts and his win over Jiri Vesely in round one was only his second ever win at Masters level on hard and it’s hard to see anything other than a 2-0 Ferrer win here at 1.32.

David Goffin vs Borna Coric

Goffin has struggled so far in 2015 and looks rather short today as a 1.51 favourite against Coric, who presumably the layers think will be struggling after a tough three set win in round one.

Coric looked down and out against Andreas Haider-Maurer, but came back in really fine style to beat the Austrian, which is very encouraging for the Croatian, who didn’t play well for most of that match.

Goffin hasn’t found his best form this season at all and hasn’t strung two straight wins together since week one in Chennai, with bad losses coming against Simone Bolelli and twice to Marcos Baghdatis.

The Belgian has had a tricky year with injuries and withdrew from Indian Wells with a back/rib issue, meaning he hasn’t played a match on tour since losing to Baghdatis a month ago in Dubai.

A first match back against an opponent as talented as Coric is tough and Miami hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Goffin in the past either, with a loss a year ago to Horacio Zeballos in his opening match to look back on.

Goffin looks rather short all things considered and there looks to be value in the price on Coric.

Alejandro Falla vs Ivo Karlovic

March isn’t generally the best time of the season for Karlovic and here in Miami where it’s slow, hot and humid he struggles, with a dreadful 3-10 record at this tournament so far in his career.

Conditions couldn’t be much worse for the big man, whose final set tie break win over Lukasz Kubot in 2012 is the only time he’s ever beaten a player ranked higher than 95 in the world at this tournament.

Perhaps just as worrying for Karlovic backers is his 4-10 record in tie breaks at this venue and for me the courts play too slow and the humidity drains the energy from the legs of the 6’11” 36-year-old veteran.

We had a nice winner with Falla over a big serving veteran in Michael Berrer in round one and the motivated Colombian is far happier in these conditions than Karlovic, against whom he has a 1-1 career record.

The loss came in quick conditions at altitude in Falla’s back yard and it should be advantage Falla in today’s match situation, which could hardly be more different.

Best Bets
Sure thing: Back Ferrer to beat Delbonis 2-0 at 1.32
Value bet: Back Coric to beat Goffin at 2.48
Long shot: Back Falla to beat Karlovic at 3.0