ATP Tennis Betting: Dimitrov and Robredo set for gruelling battle in the desert


Round three at the 2015 BNP Paribas Open completes on Tuesday, with eight matches on the card at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

And Monday was another decent one for our bets, with Fernando Verdasco and Thanasi Kokkinakis providing two odds-against winners on the day.

Verdasco landed the 3.10 gamble by taking the opening set from Kei Nishikori and went on to show exactly why I didn’t trust him to finish the job in a three set defeat to the Japanese.

Following that, Kokkinakis battled his way past Juan Monaco for a 2.08 winner in a match that ended up going the distance after Kokky had led by a set and a break at one stage.

But there was a surprising loss for the over 22.5 games in John Isner vs Kevin Anderson after Isner had taken the opener on a tie break. Anderson folded in set two to a 2-6 loss, falling a couple of games short of the required mark.

It’s forecast to be another hot, dry day in the 30s at Indian Wells on Tuesday, but with little in the way of wind expected.

Roger Federer vs Andreas Seppi

There are plenty of options for short-priced punters on Tuesday, with Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal a viable treble at 1.32.

But at the same price I like the under 0.5 tie breaks in the Federer/Andreas Seppi clash, which takes place at 02:00 UK time.

Fed will be very keen to wrap this one up quickly after losing to the Italian for the first time in 11 matches at the Australian Open in January.

Prior to that match there had been zero tie breaks between the pair in the previous 14 sets contested going back to 2009 (also in Melbourne) and the slower conditions here will mean more chances for Fed to break serve.

Since 2003, Fed has played only two three breaks in 26 sets here against players ranked from 32 to 50 in the world and Seppi’s serve, which was aided greatly in Melbourne by the fast courts, will get no such assistance here – and even less so at night.

Milos Raonic vs Alexandr Dolgopolov

Dolgo looks to me the one today with the best chance of causing an upset when he faces the man he beat convincingly here a year ago in Raonic.

The Ukrainian has a great record against big servers and he totally dismantled the Canadian’s game here in that Indian Wells clash 12 months ago.

Dolgo often lets himself down with his own serving, but that’s been decent this week, with 15 aces and a 57 percent first serve mark against Santi Giraldo and 60 percent and seven aces (no double faults) against Frank Dancevic.

If he can serve near his best again on Tuesday at around 22:00 UK time when this pair meet for the second time I see no reason why he can’t take down Raonic again.

The Ukrainian has a 10-7 winning record against the big servers in my database in the last two and a bit seasons, with wins over Raonic, Ivo Karlovic, Sam Groth, Jerzy Janowicz and Anderson and Raonic looks an upset waiting to happen today.

Tommy Robredo vs Grigor Dimitrov

This midnight UK time clash between the Bulgarian and the Spaniard will be their third career meeting and to me this has the look of a real battle and over 21.5 games looks good here.

Dimitrov was a little lucky to say the least to progress from his opener when Nick Kyrgios injured himself just before he was due to serve for the match and still using a prototype racquet Dimi looks short of his best right now.

Perhaps off-court distractions such as a mega bucks sponsorship deal with Rolex have turned the head of a player with one major semi final to his name thus far, but whatever the reason he looks a sketchy choice as a 1.35 shot today.

Tommy hasn’t produced his best by any means so far this season and injury has had a lot to do with that, but he’ll still battle away, as he did in his own tough opener against Andrey Golubev.

Robredo and Dimitrov played out a tough three setter in Canada in their most recent clash and a tight two or three set grind is expected here.

Best Bets
Sure thing: Back no tie break in Federer/Seppi at 1.33
Value bet: Back over 21.5 total games in Dimitrov/Robredo at 1.73
Long shot: Back Dolgopolov to beat Raonic at 2.95