It’s semi final Saturday in our three tournaments in week 17 of the 2015 ATP World Tour – or at least it is in two of them.
I said yesterday that it looked set to be a washout in Munich and so it proved, with persistent rain putting paid to play at the BMW Open, so there’s nothing new to add about that tournament today.
They’re going to attempt to play the quarters and semis today to get back on track in Germany, with the weather set to improve on Saturday.
Yesterday’s only wager that made it onto the court turned out to be disappointing, with a poor showing from Nico Almagro against Richard Gasquet.
After an opening set where he failed to take any of his break point chances early on the Spaniard couldn’t buy a first serve and then collapsed in set two from 5-2 up to lose it 7-6.
So, the first of our quarter finals is in Istanbul today, with Roger Federer looking to improve upon a very mediocre showing against Daniel Gimeno-Traver on Friday.
The Swiss is likely to be better today after three very competitive sets yesterday and he should ease past Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in two, but I’m not confident enough in the Swiss to make it a ‘sure thing’ after the DGT match.
Richard Gasquet vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Instead of taking Federer 2-0 at 1.30 I think that Gasquet to get the better of GGL at 1.50 is a better short-priced wager and after easing past Almagro I would expect the Gasman to beat a fatigued Garcia-Lopez.
GGL has served me well over the last week or so, but he has played eight matches in 11 days on clay and the legs must be going a bit, although confidence will be at a high of course.
He’s a little fortunate that he didn’t have to go three sets again yesterday against Borna Coric, who let a 5-1 second set lead slip and that would surely have reduced his chances yet further today.
But now that Gasquet has got his often brittle confidence going I’d expect him to continue what is a very good career record against GGL going and make another final in Estoril.
The Frenchman may not find it quite as easy as his three previous career wins over GGL, all of which came in straight sets on clay, but I can’t see a tired GGL being able to be consistent enough to cause problems for Gasquet today after a tough run of matches.
The opening match of the day in Estoril should go the way of Nick Kyrgios, but it might be tough against the durable Pablo Carreno-Busta and I’m not confident enough in the Aussie on this surface to back him at 1.50 today.
Grigor Dimitrov vs Pablo Cuevas
I think there might be a spot of value about the 2-1 win in this 15:30 UK time start in what promises to be a good tussle between Cuevas and Dimitrov.
The Bulgarian has been very patchy this season and hasn’t been a great choice for favourite backers, with five losses as jolly this campaign, but he does have a perfect 6-0 career record on clay when priced between 1.40 and 1.50.
This should be a win for Dimitrov, who does have that extra power on serve to call upon over Cuevas, but the Bulgarian does have his dips in matches and the Uruguayan has the class to take advantage and take this to a decider.
Dimitrov ran out an easy winner late in the season on indoor hard last year in their only prior career meeting, but that has little bearing on today and the 4.10 about Dimitrov winning 2-1 looks a decent choice as a ‘long shot’ today.
Sure thing: Back Gasquet to beat Garcia-Lopez at 1.50
Long shot: Back Dimitrov to beat Cuevas 2-1 at 4.10