ATP Tennis Betting: Dimitrov good value on the aces in Kyrgios clash

We’ve the final of the Western & Southern Open and round one of the Winston-Salem Open on Sunday, with five matches on the card today.

Saturday’s play was the punch in the guts I was half expecting, as last week’s outright Grigor Dimitrov, who flopped to Robin Haase, took down this week’s outright John Isner in two tie breaks.

Dimitrov was probably just about the better player on the day, but he certainly rode his luck in the second set tie break and to have now had 17 semi finalists and only two titlists this season is ridiculous.

And to compound that the value on no tie breaks in the Nick Kyrgios vs David Ferrer semi final failed miserably too, with both of the sets in that going to breakers.

We’ll still make a slight profit on the week whatever happens today, but again it’s been nothing but bad luck on the outrights.

Nick Kyrgios vs Grigor Dimitrov

So, we have 25-1 shot Kyrgios and 33-1 chance Dimitrov in the final of a Masters 1000 at around 21:00 UK time tonight (16:00 local) and one of this much-hyped pair will be taking home the biggest trophy of their careers.

Many will say it’s long overdue for Dimitrov at 26-years-old, but the truth is he hasn’t really deserved it, with a career record of 75% losses versus top-10 opposition.

That’s not going to win you many big titles and this looks the best chance he’s likely to get for a year or two at least, with the elite players still very much around for the time being.

It was a surprise to me, and probably many others, that the Bulgarian was the calmer man in the key moments than Isner yesterday and if he can continue with that resolve tonight he has every chance of taking that elusive Masters 1000 shield.

Standing in his way is Kyrgios, a 25-1 shot because of all his injury problems and continuing hip issue that he mentions in pretty much every interview, but it didn’t stop him from beating Ivo Karlovic and Rafa Nadal back-to-back on Friday.

That said he didn’t look fully fit on Saturday against David Ferrer and it’s a little bit of guesswork as to how he’ll shape up today after plenty of tennis in a short space of time this week.

I’d fancy a fully fit Kyrgios to win this, but he says he isn’t 100%, so we have to take him at his word and it would be very unlucky if the Aussie were beaten more by injury than the opponent, as that was what happened on the only other occasion they met.

That was at Indian Wells in 2015 when Kyrgios was about to serve for the match at 5-4 in the third when he rolled his ankle and rather daftly didn’t take a MTO, which pretty much handed the match to the Bulgarian.

So, I don’t see any value on Kyrgios at 1.63 here and instead the bet I like is for Dimitrov to hit the most aces with a 4.5 start at 1.95.

It was actually Dimitrov that hit more aces in that Indian Wells match (16 to 12) and the Bulgarian has been serving very well this week, plus he does tend to get a racquet on most things where NK doesn’t.

Isner only out-aced Dimitrov by 14 to 10 yesterday and Kyrgios has a bigger number by some way in their ‘opponent aces per game’ statistic on outdoor hard over the last 12 months.

Kyrgios gets aced 0.61 times per game, compared with the 0.43 of Dimitrov, and the Aussie often doesn’t exactly put a great effort in to go chasing big serves.

He also hasn’t sent down that many aces this week either, with a ratio of 0.97 per game, which is likely not far enough ahead of Dimitrov’s 0.85 to cover a -4.5 ace handicap, with Dimitrov serving very well this week.

Winston-Salem Open
Over in Winston-Salem they start their round one on Sunday, along with the remaining matches from qualifying, and while the four matches on the card in North Carolina don’t exactly appeal as betting mediums it’s worth looking at the trends.

Looking back at the six-year history of this event since it moved from New Haven we see that despite the fact that the players regard the surface as quite a quick one there have been few tie break matches.

From 2011 to 2016 there were 99 tie break matches of 273 that counted for this purpose, which comes out at only 36% of the matches, so the odds on there being one should be 2.78 and 1.56 on there not being a tie break.

Exactly the same amount of underdogs (99) have won in Winston-Salem, so there’s a 36% chance of there being an underdog winner, which is the highest ratio on this hard court swing so far (the same amount more or less as in Los Cabos, but they had a very short history).

Thiago Monteiro is yet to win a match on the main tour on outdoor hard (0-7) and his stats are as bad as you’d expect, with a hold/break total of 80.7, so I’m not expecting Alexandr Dolgopolov to lose this one, although you’re never quite sure with the Dolgo.

Marcos Baghdatis has been injured yet again and missed Montreal and Cincy with an elbow injury, so he’s a risky bet as favourite today against Ricardas (or is he back to being called ‘Richard’ again?’ Berankis.

The Lithuanian, who made the final of the Jinan Challenger on August 12, is here on a protected ranking and his outdoor hard court stats at main level are weak at a total of 85.2.

Nicolas Kicker has never played a match on hard at main level, so hopefully he’ll be a handy opponent for another of my outrights Andrey Kuznetsov in round one.

Jan Lennard Struff plays a very low number of tie breaks on outdoor hard (0.08 per set in the last year at main level), so I guess 1.67 on no tie breaks is a little bit of value, but not enough for me., in his clash with the perfectly capable Norbert Gombos.

Best Bet
1.5 points win Dimitrov +4.5 to hit most aces at 1.95