The second round matches begin in the men’s draw at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on Saturday, with some great betting opportunities in today’s 16 matches.
I said yesterday that Friday’s matches looked trappy and so it proved, with some interesting results and numerous three-setters including Adrian Mannarino blowing a bunch of match points and five straight from 6-3 up in a final set tie break against Alejandro Gonzalez.
It was one winner from my two bets, as Jarkko Nieminen eased past Daniel Brands after a slow start, but Dudi Sela fell one service hold away from landing the overs against Feli Lopez.
Today’s card offers the opportunity to back several outsiders and my list includes Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Michael Russell, Ryan Harrison, Alejandro Falla and Santiago Giraldo, with the first of these starting at 19.00 UK time.
Alejandro Falla 3.50 vs Jerzy Janowicz 1.28 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 19.05
This match looks a tricky proposition for Janowicz, whose record against lefties isn’t great and in conditions that I don’t think will suit the Pole particularly well.
JJ has won just three matches at ATP Tour level against lefties set against seven losses and these slow, high bouncing courts combined with gusty wind and the balls tough to control gives this match the potential to really test the questionable temper of Janowicz.
Falla, as I said the other day, plays above himself at the bigger events and he has beaten Janowicz in the past, along with John Isner, so he’s not shy of taking on the big servers.
It looks a tough opening match for Janowicz and the +1.5 sets on Falla at 1.90 or the 3.50 outright both appeal.
Sam Querrey 1.73 vs Andreas Seppi 2.04
This match looks a good opportunity for Querrey to progress in his native California against one of the few opponents, who has managed to appear even more out of sorts than himself lately.
I’m not too sure what’s going on with Seppi, but he hasn’t looked at the races for a long time now and he’s lost nine of his 11 matches in all competitions this season and hasn’t won two straight matches that didn’t involve a retirement at tour level since the US Open.
I was happy to take Sam on in the first round here, but now that he’s got a win under his belt his decent record here of 12-8 compared to Seppi’s 5-7 should equate to an American win. The 2-1 Querrey victory appeals here at 3.95, as does the 1.67 about any win.
Ryan Harrison 3.15 vs Fabio Fognini 1.34 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 22.35
Another American who has a surprisingly good record here is Harrison, who has a 9-4 mark at Indian Wells and who faces the questionable intent of Fognini.
The Fog has played a lot of tennis lately – 19 matches and many of them on clay – and he looked cooked in his last outing in Rio when he gave up the ghost against Alex Dolgopolov.
Granted, he’s had time off since then, but with a poor hard court record and a much better chance of ranking points in the upcoming clay swing my thoughts drift toward Fogna’s 3-5 record here and 1-3 record in Miami and I’m suspecting only a token effort coming up in the next fortnight.
Whether Harrison can take advantage is debatable, but he has shown better form this season and plays much better at home than abroad.
Fogna has improved a little on hard, but he’s still liable to tank sets and matches and the 1.78 about Harrison +1.5 sets looks the bet.
Santiago Giraldo 3.75 vs Kei Nishikori 1.25 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 01.05
This is another one where I can’t trust a short priced favourite and Nishikori’s awful record at Indian Wells, where he’s won just one of six matches leads me to take a chance on Giraldo today.
It appears that Kei is always going to be let down by his physical problems and he retired again (for the 14th time) last time out in Memphis with hip issues and he was rated as uncertain to play here this week.
Giraldo enjoys conditions here where he has a much better 5-5 record than Kei and he beat the Japanese player here two years ago as underdog.
Nishikori’s record on the slower surfaces isn’t good and there are enough doubts about him today to have a small bet on the Colombian, who has a match under his belt and can play with no pressure today.
The 3.75 on Giraldo or the 2.04 +1.5 sets look the options here and with Kei a possible retirement risk the outright looks the call.
Back Falla +1.5 sets to beat Janowicz at 1.90
Back Querrey to beat Seppi at 1.67
Back Harrison +1.5 sets to beat Fognini at 1.78
Back Giraldo to beat Nishikori at 3.75