ATP Tennis Betting: Federer to edge out Zverev in Montreal final

It’s ‘Next-Gen’ versus ‘Previous-Gen’ in the final of the Coupe Rogers on Sunday when Alexander Zverev faces Roger Federer in Montreal.

The 20-year-old German star takes on the evergreen 36-year-old Swiss maestro at around 21:00 UK time (16:00 local) at the Uniprix Stadium after a narrow win over Denis Shapovalov on Saturday.

Indeed, our tie break played wager was unlucky, as Shapovalov had what were effectively three match points to land that bet at 5-6 in set two and it was the Canadian teen that created more break points in the match.

The forecast doesn’t look too bad for Sunday in Montreal, with maybe a hint of rain around, but a fair day is expected as Federer goes for yet another title.

Alexander Zverev vs Roger Federer

This fourth main level career meeting between the pair (fifth in all after Zverev won in three tie breaks in Hopman Cup in January) sees Federer put in quite a bit shorter than he was on grass a few months ago.

The Swiss was a 1.50 chance when he was a comfortable winner over Zverev in the final of Halle in June and now he’s rated a 1.33 shot to beat the German on an outdoor hard court.

Federer was outstanding that day in Halle and Zverev had no answer to the grass court game that Federer brought to the court on that occasion, but these are different circumstances and the result should be a lot closer.

Zverev is trying to become the first man since Andre Agassi in 1995 to win Washington DC and the Rogers Cup back-to-back and he comes into this match with more confidence than before that Halle final and on a surface he’s more accustomed to.

The German has compiled some excellent service hold/break stats this year, both on outdoor hard and on all surfaces combined, with a total of 109.9 (all) and 110.7 (outdoor hard), but he’s still behind Federer.

The Swiss is up at 117.4 on all surfaces in 2017 and 116.5 on outdoor hard and the stat that stands out to me is that both men hold serve 90% of the time on outdoor hard this season.

Given also that Federer doesn’t take as many break point chances as he probably should the likelihood of a tie break in this match is fairly high, but it doesn’t represent much betting value at 2.17.

Federer creates more break point opportunities than Zverev – in 2017 it’s 0.58 to 0.42 per game on outdoor hard – but it’s Zverev that has a better break point conversion rate at 46.4% to 42.3 and this week in Montreal it’s 55% to Zverev and 43.8% to Federer.

And if anything I’d say that Zverev has had the trickier route through, facing Gasquet, Kyrgios, Anderson and Shapovalov, while Federer played Polansky, Ferrer, Bautista Agut and Haase.

Despite the fact that Haase won only 37% of his second serve points against Federer on Saturday the Dutchman made it to a tie break (which RBA failed to do) and was only broken twice by the Swiss.

However, the game that Federer will bring to the court of pretty much all-out attack and plenty of variety and net play will probably be a bit too much for the German in the end and as good as he is he’s not quite the complete player just yet.

Zverev needs (and surely will at some point) to get more out of his serve for a man of his stature (6’6”), as often it’s not placed well enough, while Federer is the master at delivering just what he wants from his serve very often.

So, Federer with the edge for me, but 1.33 seems short enough and either over 22.5 games, over 2.5 sets or the 2-1 win to Federer look the bets to consider in this one.

If there’s a ‘most aces’ market, that’s been won by Zverev in all five of their meetings, so depending on how that’s priced up it could be one to consider.

Best Bet
1 point win Federer to beat Zverev 2-1 at 3.75