ATP Tennis Betting: Ferrer to make Seppi feel the heat in Miami


The men’s third round at the 2014 Sony Open begins on Sunday, with seven matches on the schedule at Crandon Park today.

And I’m hoping to build on what was a successful day’s tennis betting on Saturday when both of my best bets were winners.

Roberto Bautista-Agut made it look easy against a woeful Jerzy Janowicz and I was annoyed at not having plumped for the handicap on the Spaniard in that one, such was his dominance over the slumping Pole.

Then there was a tighter win when Milos Raonic and Jack Sock edged past the low total games mark of 22.5 that I talked about yesterday, with a 6-4, 7-6 win for the Canadian.

We’re one match light today, as Florian Mayer has withdrawn from the tournament citing a groin injury, so Novak Djokovic gets a free pass to the last-16 as a consequence.

 

Andreas Seppi 5.50 vs David Ferrer 1.14 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 01.05

The Spaniard foiled one of my bets in the last round when he ran away with his match against Teimuraz Gabashvili after winning an opening set that he was second best in.

That was typical Ferrer though, holding off half a dozen break points before taking his one and only opportunity and simultaneously breaking the spirit of his opponent, who knew he had played his best tennis, had his chances, and still lost the set.

The Russian didn’t win a game after that and I’m expecting a similar scenario today in a match-up that is a total nightmare for poor old Seppi, who’s having a rough time of it on the tour at the moment.

The Italian has won just four of his 14 matches in all competitions in 2014 and he hasn’t won two straight matches (that didn’t involve a retirement) at tour level since the US Open last year.

That is not the kind of form that you want to be bringing into a career series that has been a disaster for you and Seppi will be all too aware that he’s yet to push Ferrer closer than 6-4 in the 10 sets they’ve contested over the years.

Seppi just doesn’t have the weapons in his game to hit through Ferrer on a slow court like the ones here at Crandon Park and now that David has had a match to get his range back he looks nailed on to win this match and win it comfortably.

The under 20.5 total games at 1.80 and minus 4.5 games on the handicap at 1.72 both appeal greatly here.

 

Kevin Anderson 1.90 vs Richard Gasquet 1.85 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 17.35

I think it’s worth taking a chance on the big South African in this 17.35 UK time clash with Gasquet, who in these slow conditions might find this a tricky match-up against an opponent who could overpower him.

Gasquet is another player who opted to bring in a former Grand Slam winner as his coach recently and it was another odd decision for my money to hire the services of Sergi Bruguera, who never made it past the fourth round in any major other than the French Open.

The last thing that Gasquet’s game needs is someone telling him to stay miles behind the baseline and slug it out and I can’t see what else Bruguera’s experience would bring to the Gasquet game, other than at the French Open.

It must be so frustrating for the Gasman’s fans to watch him play like he so often does when he can be one of the most exciting players on tour when he steps in and attacks the ball, but instead he almost always allows his opponents to impose their games on him when it should be the other way round.

If he does so again today the Frenchman will probably be beaten by Anderson, who has a great record of 14-6 here at Crandon Park compared with Gasquet’s 9-8 mark and the South African did win the most recent match between them, which was indoors in Bercy at the end of 2012.

Gasquet hardly impressed here in a very tough opening match against Alejandro Gonzalez and he seems a little bit confused as to what he’s meant to be doing out there at the moment.

This one is winnable for Anderson, whose big serve will keep Gasquet pinned back and the slow conditions help keep the big man’s questionable movement fairly unexposed. The 1.90 about the underdog looks decent here.

 

Best Bets

Back Ferrer –4.5 games to beat Seppi at 1.72

Back Anderson to beat Gasquet at 1.90