ATP Tennis Betting: Goffin Can Trouble Federer In First Set In Basel


The finals of our two ATP 500 tournaments are all set for Sunday at the Swiss Indoors and Valencia Open 500, with Roger Federer and Andy Murray in action today.

Murray takes his place in the final of Valencia after a fine display from the Scot took down my only bet of Saturday, but those who took a chance on the 2.75 about Federer dropping a set to Ivo Karlovic would have profited.

We start at 13:30 UK time in Basel for the Swiss Indoors final between Federer and David Goffin.

 

Roger Federer vs David Goffin

The Belgian faces his idol Federer for the first time since their initial clash at the French Open of 2012 that Fed won in four in a match that saw many tipping Goffin for great things.

It didn’t really happen for Goffin after that, but his great run of form in recent months has seen him rise up the rankings to what will be a career high of at least 22 when they are out tomorrow.

Should he beat Federer today he’ll be top-20, but the effort seems to be taking its toll a little on the baby faced Belgian, who struggled his way to a three set win over Borna Coric on Saturday in their semi-final.

Goffin admitted after that match: “I’m really tired and it was tough to focus. I made a lot of mistakes on easy balls, but I’m really happy to win.”

It’s hardly surprising after 45 matches post-Wimbledon, while Federer has played 27 in the same time frame.

It might be best to look at the first set market here in these circumstances and the +2.5 games on Goffin at 1.65 looks very good here.

He should be buzzing for this one and any fatigue surely won’t kick in until later and a +2.5 game handicap in set one to his opponent would have provided a winner in eight of Federer’s last nine matches on tour.

Goffin will need to serve better than yesterday and Federer looks the likely winner, but he’ll do very well to win the opener by three games or more against a ball striker as good as the Belgian.

 

Andy Murray vs Tommy Robredo

This 15:00 UK time start pits Robredo against the man he lost to in the Shenzhen final, having blown a 6-2 lead in the second set tie break for a straight sets win a month ago.

Conditions were hot, humid and a good deal quicker than they are today and I feel that actually helps Robredo, who can get more help from his serve when it’s fast.

Looking at Robredo’s results on clay this year, other than a final in Umag that he lost to Pablo Cuevas, he only made two other quarter finals on the dirt in 2014 from 12 clay tournaments.

On hard courts he’s fared better, with four quarters or better and wins over the likes of Novak Djokovic on hard this season.

So, the lack of speed in these Valencia courts won’t necessarily favour the Spaniard and Murray is a strong favourite to land back-to-back titles after winning Vienna last week.

Murray looks highly likely to qualify for the World Tour Finals now after beating Ferrer and will rise to number five in the race if he beats Robredo today, which will all but confirm his place at the O2 with Rafa Nadal now out.

Robredo probably should have been beaten by Jeremy Chardy yesterday, with the Frenchman producing a typically Chardy-like effort when in sight of victory in both sets.

Chardy held a 6-3 lead in the tie break in set one and a 5-2 lead in set two and failed with both and I think Tommy would prefer a quicker surface than this these days.

Murray for me here and I’m slightly tempted by the 3.30 on under 8.5 games in set two, with Robredo likely to fade if he goes behind, as he did in the decider in Shenzhen, which he lost 6-1.

 

Best Bet

Back Goffin +2.5 games in set one vs Federer at 1.65