ATP Tennis Betting: Kamke can get the better of a shaky Carreno-Busta


The clay court action continues in Casablanca on Wednesday, with seven first and second round matches in play today.

It was one winning wager from my two selections on Tuesday at the Grand Prix Hassan II, as Lamine Ouahab did just enough to land the games handicap wager, but Gilles Simon fell a couple of games short of the overs mark.

Ouahab, who never looks the most athletic of specimens, to put it kindly, showed his best tennis for a set against Albert Ramos and it was enough to have the bet won early in the third set, but Federico Delbonis was too good for Simon.

 

Tobias Kamke 2.65 vs Pablo Carreno-Busta 1.45 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 11.05

It looks worth taking a chance on Kamke’s fitness here, as the German has had the benefit of a Wednesday start following his exploits in Davis Cup last weekend.

Kamke played very well indeed in beating Julien Benneteau in a match he was a real outsider for at around 4.40 on indoor hard in France and he can count himself a little unlucky to have found Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on one of his increasingly rare good days in the reverse singles.

Both matches were over in three sets and wouldn’t have been hugely demanding physically and despite playing doubles too it wasn’t a massive effort from the German, with quick points on a hard court.

Kamke’s price here looks to have a bit of Davis Cup fatigue factored in and I’m not there will be much. I’d be more concerned about the switch to clay from indoor hard, but again, he has had time to have a hit with a Wednesday start here.

PCB is certainly vulnerable and continues to show that he hasn’t really handled the switch from consistent winner on the Challenger Tour to winning matches on the ATP Tour, with just one victory this year to his name.

Carreno-Busta’s only win came over Filippo Volandri, who himself has just one win in 2014 – and that was over world number 400 Christian Garin – and the Italian also lost yesterday to young Filip Peliwo, so Pippo’s form is also poor.

The +2.5 games handicap on Kamke will provide retirement cover if the German does turn up with any ill effects from Davis Cup and is worth a bet at around 2.00.

PCB has won just two of his last 14 matches against top-100 ranked opposition at tour level and looks a very shaky investment at 1.50 to me.

Elsewhere, Leo Mayer has drifted in the betting and looks set to go off as only slight favourite now against Jiri Vesely in a match that really could go either way, while I would expect Kevin Anderson and Albert Montanes to be good selections for short-priced favourite backers.

Mikhail Kukushkin could easily upset Guillermo Garcia-Lopez if he’s recovered sufficiently from Davis Cup, while Robin Haase, as ever, looks the most shaky of the odds-on favourites at a tournament that he openly complained about “filth” and “theft” in when he lost to Ouahab – then ranked 752 – back in 2012.

 

Best Bet

Back Kamke +2.5 games to beat Carreno-Busta at 2.00