It was a very satisfying day of ATP tennis betting of the clay of Hamburg on Wednesday, with pretty much everything I wrote about coming to fruition.
My two best bets of Alexandr Dolgopolov and Pablo Andujar both covered their handicaps over Jerzy Janowicz and Thomaz Bellucci respectively, while all the underdogs I suggested had good chances won.
That incorporated Tobias Kamke, Leo Mayer, Alexander Zverev, and Dustin Brown, while the other name on the list, Martin Klizan, withdrew.
So, it’s with full pockets that we approach the last-16 matches on Thursday, in a tournament that lost seven seeded players yesterday, including number two Fabio Fognini, who yet again threw in a disgraceful effort against a sick opponent.
Fogna lost 17 straight points to a below par Filip Krajinovic (world number 149) in the latest in a string of pathetic showings that have blighted the Italian’s career.
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Gilles Simon
I’ve been happy to side with the more motivated Germans in this Hamburg tournament so far, which has paid dividends and may do so again in the case of Kohlschreiber.
The number seven seed took a while to get going against the limited Portuguese Gastao Elias yesterday, but played pretty well once he found his clay shoes, but Gillou may not have that luxury today.
The moody Frenchman hasn’t played since Wimbledon and not on clay since losing to Milos Raonic at Wimbledon and the switch is tough as Kohlschreiber showed, not only against Elias, but also last week in Stuttgart.
Simon has been very in and out this season – mainly out – and I think it’s asking a lot for him to come here to Kohlschreiber’s home patch and defeat him in his first match on clay for a while.
The price has held up on the German due in part to Simon’s 4-1 head-to-head record over his rival, but such historic matches don’t always amount to much and the last time they met was almost four years ago.
Indeed, they’ve never before faced each other on clay and surely Kohlschreiber’s motivation will be higher than Simon’s, with Gillou down to play Gstaad next week and Philipp having a week off.
The approach of these two will be interesting today, with Simon only very rarely showing an attacking intent and he’s usually more comfortable pushing, which should allow Kohlschrieber the chance to take the initiative.
Kohli did stand much too far back for a fair while against Elias and he can’t do that against Simon or the Frenchman may grind him down.
The 1.52 about Kohlschreiber isn’t the most exciting wager of the week, but today looks tricky and it appears the best choice.
Of today’s outsiders the one that appeals the most is Lukas Rosol, who has a shot against Tommy Robredo. Rosol should have beaten Tommy in Melbourne in January and he can gain some revenge here.
The Czech is hardly one to trust to produce his best level, but if he does he can win that one, while today is surely the best chance in a long time that Andreas Seppi has to get a set from David Ferrer.
The Spaniard has been very shaky of late and depending on Seppi’s levels of belief that could go past the over 20.5 total games mark.
Zverev’s dream run in his home tournament should end today at the hands of Santi Giraldo, while I wouldn’t fancy a bet in the matches involving Andujar, Dolgopolov, or Dusan Lajovic.
Twitter followers will know I’m on Dominic Thiem outright at a big price this week (and Giraldo) and should the Austrian get past Leo Mayer today he has half a chance, but this will be tough against the Argentine and I’d be looking at the overs in that one.
Best Bet: Back Kohlschreiber to beat Simon at 1.52