Friday is quarter-finals day at the Rothenbaum in the German Open and while it’s been a good week for home players, the seeds haven’t fared quite so well, with just two left in.
My best bet of Thursday was Philipp Kohlschreiber to beat Gilles Simon and the German did just that in straight sets.
My other views yesterday also turned out to be on the money, with Lukas Rosol beating Tommy Robredo, while Andreas Seppi did indeed take a set off David Ferrer for the first time and those on the overs would have collected easily there.
The city of Hamburg is guaranteed one representative in the semi-finals as locals Tobias Kamke and Alexander Zverev face each other in one quarter-final, while Germany may have another with Kohlschreiber.
Alexander Zverev vs Tobias Kamke
This 11:00 UK time start is the most fascinating match of the day, with Zverev playing at a level he’s never found before and yesterday’s win over my outright pick Santi Giraldo was his best of the week thus far.
The 17-year-old became the youngest ATP quarter-finalist since Rafa Nadal made the last eight in Bastad and he now seeks to emulate Marin Cilic, who made the Gstaad semis at 17 back in 2006.
And one would have to conclude that he has a fine chance against an opponent he defeated in straight sets on clay less than three weeks ago at the Braunschweig Challenger.
Both players are obviously determined to do well at their home event, but if Zverev can hold his level for another day I see no reason why he can’t beat Kamke again.
I expected Giraldo to prove too experienced and emerge victorious against Zverev yesterday, but he wasn’t up to it and although there was a bit of a choke from the young man he did well to overcome it and take the second set in a tie break.
Indeed, this match could prove a nice one for a bit of in-play action, with both likely to struggle with the finish line in sight. Kamke has form for this and he’s shown it again on several occasions this week.
One of those times was when he almost blew a 5-2 lead against Alexandr Dolgopolov in the final set yesterday and I’m tempted by the over 22.5 total games and Zverev win here.
Zverev didn’t serve very well in that Kamke match in Braunschweig, with only 54% of first balls in play and seven double faults, yet he still emerged the winner and if he repeats his level of previous days and has enough left in the tank he should do so again.
The second match at around 13:00 UK time should see Leo Mayer beat Dusan Lajovic, but the Argentine is too short for my liking, as are David Ferrer against Pablo Andujar and Kohlschreiber against Rosol.
Ferrer isn’t playing well enough this season to warrant the short prices he’s getting and Pablo might score with a +4.5 game start, but he’s hardly one to rely on against top opponents.
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Lukas Rosol
Rosol beat Kohlschreiber last week in Stuttgart on a good serving day for the Czech and I see no reason at all why the big hitter can’t take the German past the over 21.5 total games mark at a price of 1.63.
Lukas is in good form and confident right now after making the final in Stuttgart and with wins over the likes of Kohlschreiber, Robredo, Mikhail Youzhny, and Feli Lopez in the last fortnight on clay.
Home advantage didn’t really count for much last week in this match-up, which will probably make Kohlschreiber even keener to do well, but he created just one break point in two long sets against Rosol last week and the overs looks very good here.
Back Zverev to beat Kamke at 1.82
Back over 21.5 total games in Kohlschreiber/Rosol at 1.63