Semi-final Saturday is the order of the day today at the Rothenbaum, as the last four face off at the German Open Tennis Championships in Hamburg.
It was one winning wager from two on Friday when Alexander Zverev came back from a bagel first set to take down Tobias Kamke in three, while my over wager in the Philipp Kohlschreiber/Lukas Rosol match fell a couple of games short.
We start at around 14:30 UK time on Saturday with Kohlschreiber taking on Argentine Leo Mayer for a place in the final.
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Leonardo Mayer
Football fan Mayer will no doubt be hoping that this clash yields a different result to last week’s Germany vs Argentina World Cup Final and previous form between the two would point that way.
Mayer has won both prior meetings with Kohlschreiber, both of which came on clay courts, and Leo could be in a good position to take advantage of any of his opponent’s likely nerves here.
Kohlschreiber was carrying my outright cash when he choked in Halle at the semi final stage last month against underdog Alejandro Falla and I simply don’t trust him to produce when the pressure is on.
Philipp did play well against Rosol and before that against Gilles Simon, but he was given a fair bit of help from Gillou in that one and I’d be very surprised if this ended up in a straightforward win for Kohlschreiber.
Mayer has made some good money for us lately, with a couple of nice bets on him at Wimbledon proving successful, and he’s carried that form on here after a typical dip at Stuttgart last week.
His loss there came in an early morning start the night after an Argentina match, so conspiracy theorists would have no doubt had a field day there, but there are no such concerns today – hopefully.
This battle of the single-handed backhands should be a fun one to watch and with Mayer confident after not dropping a set this week so far I don’t see much value in the German at 1.53 today.
Mayer has withdrawn from Umag next week, so he should be giving this his full attention and I’m expecting a really close match here, which makes the 2.5 game start that Mayer gets likely to edge it in his favour.
David Ferrer vs Alexander Zverev
This could be one too many for Zverev, who is likely to be on his last legs after that come from behind win over Kamke and with Ferrer finally playing some decent tennis yesterday it could be straightforward for the Spaniard.
That’s the assumption anyway, but the young German has been upsetting odds all week and landed a couple of winning bets for us and he won’t want his week to end on a sour note.
After equalling Marin Cilic’s record of making the semi-finals of a tour level event – this one is a 500 though, rather than Gstaad’s 250 status – Zverev might well settle for the close scoreline in that Gstaad semi between Cilic and Feli Lopez.
The Spaniard was a 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 winner that day, but Zverev has a rather tougher Spanish opponent to overcome today than Marin faced all those years ago.
David has made a habit out of beating players under the age of 21, with 14 straight wins over opponents of that age dating all the way back to his last loss in 2009.
The opponent that day was a certain Juan Martin Del Potro, but that was on a hard court and on clay the last loss to an under-21 was to one Rafael Nadal in Barcelona back in 2007.
The layers are making the fairly reasonable assumption that Zverev has little left and the only bet that appeals to me here is the over 19.5 total games to go against that thinking.
A fair bit of guesswork about the 17-year-old’s conditioning is at work there though and I think I’ll be just an interested spectator in this one.
Back Mayer +2.5 games to beat Kohlschreiber at 1.87