This week’s only ATP World Tour tournament the Moselle Open in Metz concludes its opening round and starts its second round matches on Wednesday.
There was major misfortune on Tuesday at the Palais Omnisports Les Arènes when an injured Andreas Seppi dragged his match with Igor Sijsling out until the exact moment that my handicap could be declared a loser.
The Italian was never competitive, thanks to a back injury, and because he retired after Sijsling had won four games in the second set the minus 2.5 games wager on Seppi goes down as a loss.
It looks like the layers have done their homework in a few of Wednesday’s matches at least, with Davis Cup exertions leading to some prices that would be a little off at first glance if it weren’t for the fatigue factor.
Jarkko Nieminen was a 1.5 shot the last time he met Sergiy Stakhovsky on indoor hard in February last year and after winning that one in a final set tie break he’s a 1.42 chance today.
This is down to Stakho’s efforts in Davis Cup and a potential injury also there, while Dusan Lajovic is a big-looking 2.75 against Jan-Lennard Struff due to his big effort in Davis Cup and a late return from India.
The same could be said of Joao Sousa, who has been struggling of late and continued that form at the weekend, while David Goffin – who thrashed Stakhovsky in Davis Cup at the weekend – seems to have no such problems.
Goffin is a 1.14 shot against veteran Frenchman Florent Serra, who is down near the 500s in the world these days and who hasn’t beaten a top-50 ranked player in a completed match since 2010.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Gilles Muller
This one looks like it could be a little tighter than the betting suggests, with Tsonga coming off Davis Cup duty on clay in Paris and Muller having had a match in these conditions already.
Big Jo played well for France, but he wasn’t up against much in a poor Lukas Rosol and he’ll need to be careful here, as Muller will be very much up for the fight in this 17:00 UK time encounter.
This pair of big servers haven’t met across the net for over seven years now and Tsonga is yet to beat Muller, who won both clashes on the Challenger circuit in 2007 and 2005.
That means very little of course, but Tsonga’s well-documented lack of ability on return should see Muller keep this match tight in these circumstances.
The over 9.5 games in set one looks very likely at 1.55, while the over 22.5 total games and the set one to Muller for a chancier wager all hold appeal here.
Tsonga dropped the opening set here in Metz in the quarter final, semi final and final here last year, so he’s not immune to starting slowly here in the Green City, and if Muller gets that big lefty serve going early the 3.10 about him striking first could be decent.
The final match of the day looks another coin flip of a match involving Rosol and Paul-Henri Mathieu and I’d probably side with the overs there, with neither man likely to break serve much.
But with all the bad prices around due to Davis Cup exertions it’s worth chancing Muller, who we know will be up for his match and has the weapons to do some damage.
Back Muller to win set one vs Tsonga at 3.10