The early stages of week 42’s three ATP World Tour tournaments continue on Wednesday, with round one and two action in Vienna, Stockholm and Moscow.
Tuesday wasn’t one to remember as far as ATP tennis betting goes, with Donald Young never really threatening Leo Mayer and Marinko Matosevic capitulating at the end of his three setter with Fernando Verdasco.
Wednesday’s play has 16 matches across our three tournaments, with play getting underway at 08:00 UK time in Moscow; 12:00 in Vienna and 11:00 in Stockholm.
Ivan Dodig vs Andreas Seppi
This Kremlin Cup match should take place at around 14:00 UK time today and I’m happy to side with Seppi as a slight underdog in this one.
The Italian has shown some signs of life in recent weeks after a very average season by his standards and in these slow conditions he should get enough time on the ball to outlast Dodig.
Seppi lost two matches that he should really have won against Tommy Robredo in China and both of those losses came down to the Spaniard having more belief at the vital time than any gap in class.
From the back of the court they were very even and any repeat of the quality he showed there should be enough against Dodig, who hasn’t strung two wins together since beating Seppi in Toronto.
Both of these players have struggled with back problems since the US Open and it’s likely to be a tight affair if they’re both fit, but Seppi has had the edge, winning four of their five meetings in the past.
The Italian has a fine record here of 8-2, with a title in 2012 and a semi final last year, so he clearly enjoys conditions at the Olympic Stadium, and he’ll enjoy coming back to a venue where he’s had plenty of success.
Seppi was 1.77 favourite last time this pair met a couple of months ago and at a bigger price today he could prove a touch of value, although he has been cut into 1.83 from 1.95.
In Stockholm one wager stands out to me as being worth taking a chance on.
Dustin Brown vs Christian Lindell
This feature match in Sweden at around 19:00 UK time could well be a lot closer than the odds suggest, depending upon which version of Brown turns up.
I’m not so sure that the wildly inconsistent and unpredictable German should be a 1.22 shot against anyone on the tour, let alone a player for whom this is probably his match of the season.
We saw how Patrik Rosenholm defied his ranking the other day to almost oust Bernard Tomic and Lindell can do something similar to Brown if the latter isn’t at his best, which is distinctly possible.
This is a man who was a 1.28 shot to beat Britain’s Ed Corrie in qualies and just about sneaked past the world number 215, who has only ever played one match in the main draw on the tour.
Reports suggest that the centre court in Stockholm is quite slow and this is likely to help clay-loving Lindell, who has never played a match on indoor hard, and instead plays almost exclusively on the dirt.
It’s a long shot, but I can’t have Brown at this sort of price and Lindell did very well in his last main draw appearance at home in Sweden, making the second round and only losing in a final set tie breaker to eventual Bastad champion Pablo Cuevas. The 2.20 about him winning a set looks decent here.
In Vienna I was tempted by Simone Bolelli to beat Tobias Kamke and Lukas Lacko to beat Lukas Rosol, but I’m not sure that I really trust either of them and Ivo Karlovic looks a little short at 1.66 against Jurgen Melzer, who beat him five times in the past.
Melzer is not the player he was in those days, but at home he may be able to summon an effort from his ageing legs and the overs looks likely there after Ivo played a break point-less three tie breaks yesterday against Federico Delbonis.
Back Seppi to beat Dodig at 1.83
Back Lindell +1.5 sets to beat Brown at 2.28