ATP Tennis Betting: Wawrinka won't have it all his own way


The 2014 Sony Open enters its second week of play on Monday with the remaining eight matches of the men’s third round in play today.

My wagers on Sunday in Key Biscayne went one from two, with David Ferrer producing the expected straightforward win over Andreas Seppi, while Kevin Anderson failed to make it two on the day, with a disappointing display against Richard Gasquet.

The big South African didn’t take any of his five break point chances and was generally below par, allowing Gasquet to gain the upper hand and he goes on to face Roger Federer tomorrow.

Before that the number one ranked Swiss takes to the Crandon Park courts at around 19.00 UK time today.

 

Stanislas Wawrinka 1.20 vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin 4.50 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 17.05

The Australian Open champion looks a touch short for my liking here at around 1.20 against an opponent, who, while limited at the highest level, has gained a lot of confidence over the last year or so.

Indeed, ERV took advantage of Stan’s chronic inability to perform at home in Switzerland when the Frenchman was a winner at a big price in Basel at the end of last season and he holds some attraction on a handicap basis here.

Roger-Vasselin’s win over an admittedly below par Marin Cilic in round two here on Saturday will add to the confidence that he’s gleaned from good performances against the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro, Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic in recent months.

Wawrinka was troubled by a back problem at Indian Wells, which he refused to blame his defeat by Anderson on, but his first match here in Miami was hardly convincing when the Swiss dropped a set to Daniel Gimeno-Traver.

With the pressure of being a Slam champion and a poor record at this particular tournament added to the mix I’m not sure that 1.20 appeals.

Better bets for me would be the over 21.5 total games at 1.90 or the +4.5 game start that ERV receives at around 1.70.

The world number 43 wasn’t broken at all by Cilic on Saturday, winning a very high percentage of his service points on both first and second balls and Stan will do well to win this by as wide a margin as the prices indicate.

 

Roberto Bautista-Agut 1.73 vs Fabio Fognini 2.06 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 20.05

I see no reason to go against RBA after the in-form Spaniard landed a nice winner for us on Saturday with a comprehensive win over Jerzy Janowicz.

He faces a totally different kind of opponent today than the big-serving Pole, but one that can be just as emotional and liable to similar on-court meltdowns and histrionics – hopefully we’ll get the same result.

Fognini has improved his play on a hard court in recent times, but he knows full well he has no realistic chance of making the business end of this tournament and with Rafa Nadal a likely next opponent should he win today he’ll surely have one eye on his next engagement, which will be a big one for him on the clay of Naples in the Davis Cup quarter finals.

RBA is one of this year’s most improved players, but has long been effective on hard courts and to my mind he’s a much more accomplished performer on this surface than Fognini, who only has one quarter-final to his name on outdoor hard.

The pair have met on four prior occasions, with Fogna winning three of them, but notably the one played on an outdoor hard court went the way of the Spaniard in five sets in Melbourne just over a year ago.

The layers have made RBA the slight favourite for this at 1.78 and I would be inclined to agree and make him my second wager of the day.

 

Best Bets

Back over 21.5 total games in Wawrinka/Roger-Vasselin at 1.90

Back Bautista-Agut to beat Fognini at 1.78