ATP Tennis Betting: Weak favourite Youzhny a Risk in Rotterdam


It promises to be a tricky day for the favourites in Rotterdam and Buenos Aires, writes Unibet columnist Sean Calvert...


The first round action continues on week seven of the ATP World Tour on Tuesday in our three tournaments in Holland, Argentina and the USA.

There wasn’t much play early on in Buenos Aires, where the weather took a turn for the worst, but my sole wager in the Rotterdam ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament found the mark when Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeated Florian Mayer.

Tsonga continued his streak of beating the German by five games or more, but he had to do it the hard way and the handicap wager was in severe danger for much of the match until Jo moved clear comfortably in the decider.

I chose the wrong wager for second bet of the day in Memphis, where my outsider Michael Russell won, while Marinko Matosevic threw in a shocking display against Jiri Vesely.

There are five more first round matches on the schedule for Tuesday at the Ahoy Stadium and some quite odd scheduling may lead to an opportunity in the second match of the day in Rotterdam.

 

Rotterdam: Marin Cilic 1.17, Lukas Rosol 4.90 – BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 11.45 GMT

After landing another title in Zagreb only on Sunday evening Cilic has been handed a rather mean turnaround of a Tuesday morning match in Rotterdam, which may reveal to all and sundry the extent of Marin’s celebrations.

In normal circumstances I would expect Cilic to get the better of the hit-and-miss Rosol and he probably still will, but this scheduling severely hampers the Croatian’s chances of winning with a bit to spare after having little chance to adapt to the much slower conditions here than those in Zagreb.

Rosol played pretty well for a single set against Rafa Nadal in Doha, but hasn’t done much since and was probably dispirited after losing a match he should have won against Tommy Robredo in Melbourne.

I don’t trust the Czech to win this, but he should be able to either take it over the 21.5 total games mark at 1.83 or win with a 4.5 game start at 1.65 in these circumstances.

Although Marin won the title in Zagreb the final was his only really decent performance and Rosol’s form indoors was pretty good at the end of last season when he made the semis in Vienna and the final of the Bratislava Challenger.

 

 

Rotterdam: Mikhail Youzhny 1.48, Igor Sijsling 2.55 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 12.35 GMT

The match following the Rosol/Cilic clash features another favourite who may well be a tad below par if reports are to be believed.

Youzhny has been struggling with health problems for much of the season so far after quitting in Chennai with sickness and apparently getting sick again during his surprise loss to Bjorn Phau in Zagreb last week.

Reports from the practice courts suggested that the Russian was spluttering his way around Rotterdam this week too and today he faces what should be a motivated opponent in Dutchman Sijsling.

It’s been an up and down time for Igor of late and he’s getting to grips with the methods of a new coach this season leading to a few peaks and troughs in results and performances.

Sijsling took down Tsonga here last year and he’ll surely be keen to at least defend those ranking points in front of his home crowd and a good effort level should at least be assured one would like to think.

I doubt he’ll be good enough to beat Youzhny in conditions the Russian enjoys, but if Mikhail is a tad below par we could well see a close match here, which leads me the over 22.5 total games at 1.98.

Over in Memphis tonight I like the game of Jack Sock against Adrian Mannarino, who does not enjoy facing the big servers and likened his loss to Sock in Auckland recently to playing baseball.

 

Buenos Aires: Alexandr Dolgopolov 1.38, Pablo Cuevas 2.90 - BET and STREAM live on Unibet TV from 15.05 GMT

Several of the matches in Memphis look close calls and perhaps Buenos Aires offers better value, where Pablo Cuevas faces Alex Dolgopolov, who looks vulnerable at 1.36.

Dolgo hasn’t won any of his last six matches on clay and threw it away against Daniel Gimeno-Traver last week in Vina del Mar. Today’s opponent Cuevas is tough and motivated after returning from a long term knee injury and plays here off his protected ranking.

I’m not convinced about Dolgo as a hot favourite here at all and at 3.0 I would count Cuevas as a very decent long shot today in what will be tough conditions in Argentina.

 

Best Bets

Back Rosol +4.5 games to beat Cilic at 1.65

Back over 22.5 games in Youzhny/Sijsling at 1.98

Back Cuevas to beat Dolgopolov at 3.00