It’s the semi finals of both ATP 250 tournaments tonight and the best value bet looks to be the 2.22 about Philipp Kohlschreiber to defeat Sam Querrey in their Auckland match, which begins at around midnight UK time.
This will be the fourth meeting, with Querrey leading 2-1 at the moment, but in their one match in Australasia Kohlschreiber was a straight sets winner in Melbourne back in 2009.
And that’s the factor that nudges me in the direction of the German tonight – Querrey has a really poor record on this part of the tour and has always gone out early other than one run to the final in Auckland in 2009.
Last year Querrey lost in the first round in Chennai and Auckland and round two in Melbourne. Prior to that he was a first round loser in Sydney and Melbourne in 2011 and 2010 was the same with the addition of a first round loss in Brisbane.
The German has a much better record in these opening weeks of the season, including a title here in Auckland, and he has had several competitive matches under his belt now, both here and in Doha.
Querrey has had a comfortable couple of matches so far in 2013 against Olivier Rochus and Jesse Levine and this will be much tougher and will probably go to a deciding set, with Kohlschreiber the value pick.
Elsewhere, David Ferrer should outlast a tired Gael Monfils in the other Auckland semi final but Sydney is tougher to call.
I would fancy Bernard Tomic to beat Andreas Seppi, although 1.60 seems a little short and Julien Benneteau has a shot at odds-against in his match with Kevin Anderson, but that one could go either way.
Best Bet: Back Kohlschreiber to beat Querrey at 2.22.