ATP World Tour Finals: Focused Berdych to dominate Ferrer


The ATP World Tour Finals continues its round robin matches on Wednesday, with the evening clash featuring Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer.

It’s been a strange old start to the final week of the 2013 tour season and again last night it was a case of the right call but the wrong bet in the Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic clash.

Federer was inches away from serving for the first set when he put a forehand just wide at break point with score at 4-4. That was his chance and the Swiss was broken the next game, allowing Nole to serve it out.

 

Tomas Berdych vs David Ferrer (BET and STREAM LIVE on Unibet TV from 20.05 GMT)

This match is another repeat of a match from last week in Bercy, with Berdych taking on Ferrer, who defeated the Czech at the quarter final stage in Paris.

It’s a tricky one to judge, as both players were losers in their opening round matches and neither played well, with Ferrer perhaps excused with the fatigue factor and playing a revenge-seeking Rafa Nadal.

Berdych was really poor against Stan Wawrinka and he needs a big improvement upon that display to be in with a chance of making it through the group stages this week.

Tomas served poorly, returned badly and made plenty of errors on Monday, but having to win today may focus his mind and enable him to perform at a higher standard.

The problem with this tournament is the awful scheduling right after Paris; I haven’t seen one single player who looks anything other than dog tired here this week and consequently the quality of the matches has been poor.

Ferrer is the 1.78 favourite tonight, but looking at him against Nadal yesterday you couldn’t back him with a great deal of confidence based on that lacklustre performance, but the same could be said of Berdych.

The Czech has a clear fitness advantage – or should have – having played 13 and-a-bit matches since the US Open, while Ferrer has chalked up 21 in the same timeframe.

It appears that the layers see it as a tough call too, with the over 21.5 games as low as 1.50 and I think it’s worth siding with a bigger priced punt in this one, as the match odds make little appeal to me.

Ferrer has won only four of his 11 matches at the World Tour Finals and I’m not convinced that he has enough energy or desire left to make a run here this year.

If Berdych can serve considerably better than he did against Stan Wawrinka then he does have the power to hit through these courts, although he didn’t show it against Stan in a nervy performance. Serving strongly will set up the points the way Berdy likes and it will mean he can dominate the rallies.

Tomas’s best chance here is to win in straight sets, which he’ll probably need to do to have any hope of qualifying here and if Ferrer is struggling physically – and he should be by rights – then a quick win is not out of the question.

The Berdman wasn’t far away from a 2-0 win last week in Bercy before a determined Ferrer turned the match around and I’m not convinced that he has the mindset to do the same this time.

 

Best Bet: Back Berdych 2-0 at 3.20