Saturday yielded another winning bet in what was a very profitable week of betting on the ATP Tour. Richard Gasquet looked down and out in the Doha final, but fought back to land the title and bag us another winning bet when Nikolay Davydenko faltered within sight of the trophy.
We head into the second week of the 2013 ATP Tour with a healthy balance and on offer this week are two ATP 250 events: the Apia Sydney International and Heineken Open in Auckland. Tonight’s schedule in New Zealand offers the first glimpse of top-32 newcomer Jerzy Janowicz since his memorable run from qualifying to the finals of Bercy at the end of last season.
The Pole has a tough opener against Brian Baker, and it will be really interesting to see how the big man gets on with a bit of pressure on his shoulders. I suspect that he’s been overrated by the layers as a result of that Paris performance.
Baker is a very consistent hitter and it is asking a lot in my view for Janowicz in his first match of the season to come in and blast the American off the court, which is how he gets his wins, more or less. The serve will need to be firing and surely everyone on the ATP Tour will be just waiting for the Janowicz drop shot, which he seems to play an awful lot.
Perhaps he won’t use it as much outdoors, but the point is that he’s no longer an unknown quantity – not that he was a complete newcomer anyway – and the top guys will have watched him in Bercy and know what they’re up against.
Baker had a fabulous year in 2012 after coming back from a horrific sequence of injuries and in his opening match of the season he lost a tight one in Brisbane to the in-form Grigor Dimitrov – going down 10-8 in the second set tie breaker.
That tells me that he’s hitting pretty well and Janowicz will be doing very well to win this as comfortably as odds of 1.50 suggest. Backing Baker at 2.52 is an option, but my play will be to back him +1.5 sets at 1.57, which looks a good bet to me.
Back Baker +1.5 sets to beat Janowicz at 1.57