Saturday’s advice in the BMW Open in Munich proved to be sound, as Tommy Haas eased past Ivan Dodig to earn a place in the final. The German covered the handicap with a game to spare in a 6-4, 6-3 win over the Croatian, whilst only a pretty awful choke from Daniel Brands allowed fellow German Philipp Kohlschreiber off the hook and in with a shot of retaining his title.
Over in Oeiras, David Ferrer did indeed cover the -4.5 game handicap in a 6-1, 6-4 win over Andreas Seppi, while Stan Wawrinka had to go to a decider to defeat Pablo Carreno-Busta.
So, it’s an all-German affair in the Munich final, which begins at 12pm UK time between two men who historically haven’t been the best of pals. They have met four times in the past, with all those matches taking place on grass. The pair have shared those meetings and each has been a tough battle. But Haas has the clear advantage of having played first and had a comfortable win, while Kohlschreiber was on court for two and a quarter hours on Saturday. I like the overs in this one at a price of around 1.94 for the match to last longer than 22.5 games.
In Oeiras, the final of the Portugal Open will be the 11th time that Ferrer and Wawrinka have met on the tour, with the Spaniard leading 7-3 overall and by 5-1 on clay. Their most recent two meetings have been close though; the final of the Copa Claro in Buenos Aires on the Golden Swing went to a decider, as did their clash on indoor hard in Bercy at the end of last season. Ferrer won both of those tournaments, so doubtless he’ll be pretty confident coming into this one.
The match kicks off at 3.30pm UK time and it’s 1.70 that Wawrinka can take a set from Ferrer again, which looks worthy of consideration to me. The 2.95 about Stan may look tempting, but his record in finals isn’t great with a 3-7 all time record at tour level and the only time he’s ever beaten a higher-ranked seed in a final was when Novak Djokovic retired in the 2006 Umag final.
Ferrer has been improving after a patchy few weeks but he hasn’t really been tested by a quality opponent this week. Although I expect Ferrer to be too solid in the end Stan has a set in him and therefore the 2-1 Ferrer win is worth chancing at a tasty 3.75
Back over 22.5 games in Haas/Kohlschreiber at 1.94
Back Ferrer to beat Wawrinka 2-1 at 3.75