Thursday’s ATP wager at the 2013 Internazionali BNL d’Italia was another winner, as Jerzy Janowicz showed his mental fortitude to come back from a set down to beat Richard Gasquet. There are meant to be thunderstorms this morning in Rome, but with only one ATP match scheduled before lunchtime today we shouldn’t have too many problems with the weather today.
The first of the quarter-finals is an unlikely clash between Marcel Granollers and Benoit Paire, with the crazy Frenchman much too short in my view at around 1.50. This price must be based on his win over Juan Martin Del Potro yesterday because he’s lost his two previous meetings with the underrated Spaniard and I would have this match closer to even money.
I wouldn’t trust Benoit enough to back him in any match, let alone a quarter-final of a Masters 1000 and coming off a big win – his first over a top 10 ranked player. Granollers is clearly the value in this one for me at 2.55
It’s very hard to make a case for Tomas Berdych when he takes on Novak Djokovic at 1pm UK time. Novak bringing a 13-1 head-to-head record into this clash, and the only bright spot that I can find for Tomas is that he did take a set in their one and only meeting on clay.
Berdych does have the power to hit through the slow courts here in Rome, but his game doesn’t match up well to that of Novak, who does everything that bit better. To win, Tomas will have to play at his top level the whole way through, which is a big ask.
His best chance is to keep it close early. The 1.88 about the first set going over 9.5 games appeals the most in what should another win for Djokovic.
Back Granollers to beat Paire at 2.55
Back over 9.5 games in set one of Djokovic/Berdych at 1.88