The two men’s finals in Houston and Casablanca today are similar match-ups: two huge, big-serving types take on smaller Spanish clay courters. Both matches could go either way.
Nico Almagro is very short at 1.26 against John Isner, given that both previous matches between the pair have gone long and their clay meeting in Davis Cup last year went the full five sets. Nico hasn’t been really tested this week other than when overcoming a slow start against Gael Monfils. Although he should win this, his price is awful and I have a feeling that Isner, having finally shown some decent form this year, could nick a set and take it into a decider.
He needs to begin by getting his serve firing, something he didn’t manage against Juan Monaco, and if he does that the 2.30 about this match going over 2.5 sets looks worth taking.
In Casablanca it really is a coin toss of a game between Tommy Robredo and Kevin Anderson, who are meeting for the first time. I’m slightly leaning towards Robredo in this; Tommy has won six of his last nine against players at least 6’4” tall, and he could well have just a bit too much clay craft against Anderson, who’s never been anywhere near a clay court final before this week.
Best bet: Back over 2.5 sets in Isner vs Almagro at 2.30