Thursday was another profitable day of betting on the ATP Tour, as two of my three best bets were winners.
The day began in perfect fashion when Marinko Matosevic advanced to the quarter-finals on his birthday at the expense of Benoit Paire. The Aussie won that particular wager when he took the opening set and he had numerous match points for a 2-0 win, but eventually landed the victory in three.
That was followed by Vasek Pospisil landing another winner with a 4.5-game start on the handicap against Tomas Berdych in a tense encounter in Montreal. In the end the Canadian didn't need the handicap, but it was a really tight one.
We move on to quarter-finals day in the Coupe Rogers 2013, and it looks a very tricky day today in terms of finding value. We start with a classic clash of styles between man of the week Pospisil and the veteran Russian Nikolay Davydenko.
Pospisil will be buzzing after another great scalp yesterday in the form of Berdych, but this match will test his all-round game against one of the best ball strikers around in Davydenko. The big-serving Canadian will have the crowd behind him again, but he’s got to be feeling it after a long 10 days or so of tennis and any dip in intensity today will be punished by the Russian.
Davydenko has sneaked through without beating anything much in what’s been a dream draw for him. He hasn’t triumphed over anyone of note since he played quite brilliantly at the start of the season in reaching the Doha final. But I feel Vasek may feel the pressure of being the favourite, which makes Davydenko an interesting proposition, as he has been hitting the ball well. The Russian’s price of 2.20 looks the best option here.
The late match features Rafael Nadal taking on Matosevic, who for me is a little overpriced at around 10.0. In these conditions I would have the in-form Aussie more like half that price on the bare stats. Although Nadal should win, I doubt it will be as simple as 1.06 makes it appear.
Their only meeting in the past came on clay in Monte-Carlo, when Marinko kicked over Rafa’s carefully placed water bottles. The match ended in an easy win for the Spaniard, but he doesn’t have things his own way in these conditions and if the Aussie serves well he can make this at least respectable. Matosevic can take this match over the 20.5 total games mark at a price of around 2.02.
Back Davydenko to beat Pospisil at 2.20
Back over 20.5 games in Nadal vs Matosevic at 2.02